Russia may lose Kursk forever, Ukraine collected large amount of equipment in Sumy region

Russia may lose Kursk forever, Ukraine collected large amount of equipment in Sumy region

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Kursk operation has been going on for almost a month. During this time, Ukraine has captured almost 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory and taken control of Sudzha, an important gas export hub for Russia’s Trans-Siberian Pipeline. In addition, Ukraine has created a military administration and has enough armored vehicles amassed in the Sumy region to strengthen its military contingent.

As The Telegraph writes, this is a great achievement. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, faced with poorly trained conscripts and largely evacuated cities, have shown the defensive weaknesses of Russia and its nuclear threats. At the same time, the Ukrainian troops themselves do not intend to leave this territory, which would lead to a ceasefire and a freezing of the front.

The publication notes that although from a moral point of view this brazen gambit by Kyiv was successful, the same cannot be said from a military point of view.

“After last year’s failed counter-offensive, the Kursk offensive gave Ukrainian troops much-needed confidence. The feel-good effect was reinforced by the shock value of the Kursk invasion. The Ukrainian forces deployed to Sumy initially believed they were on a defensive mission. Seeing the spectacular collapse of Russia’s defensive lines was a welcome moment for Ukraine’s battle-weary forces, and evoked memories of Russia’s disastrous capitulation in Kharkiv in September 2022,” The Telegraph points out.

İt is noted that the invasion of Russian territory emboldened Ukraine’s most ardent Western supporters. Russia’s unwillingness to translate apocalyptic rhetoric into tactical nuclear strikes, the destruction of the Kyiv dam, or the blowing up of the Zaporizhzhya NPP destroyed the “risk of escalation” arguments against arming Ukraine.

Ukraine’s high number of strikes on enemy oil infrastructure further dampens fears around the issue. Ukraine’s ability to hold on to captured enemy territory has fueled speculation about a land swap deal and reduced pressure on Kyiv to make unilateral territorial concessions.

At the same time, the apathy of the Russian public regarding the situation in the Kursk region guarantees that Russia is unlikely to pull forces from Donetsk to defend its land. Putin’s army of propagandists has normalized Ukraine’s seizure of territory in Kursk, and the vague promise of Kyiv’s final defeat has reassured most Russians.

Moreover, the revelation of Russia’s limited escalation capacity has not accelerated approvals for sophisticated weapons transfers to Ukraine. Although the US is due to include the Joint Air-to-Surface Missile in the fall arms package, technical problems could force Ukraine to wait months to receive it. Germany has not approved the export of the Taurus cruise missile, and Washington has not unblocked the use of British Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets.

So while Ukraine’s invasion has restored the feel-good factor after a tough year of military setbacks and disappointments, tangible military gains have yet to materialize, if they ever will.
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