There is a 74% correlation between the stock price of DJT and Trump‘s odds of winning on PredictIt [OC]
September 19, 2024
There is a 74% correlation between the stock price of DJT and Trump‘s odds of winning on PredictIt. This is over the last 90 days. The data is from Yahoo Finance and predictit.com.
Posted by Far-Acanthisitta-448
25 comments
SEC asleep at the wheel again for even letting this sham of a company be listed
What the hell is the SEC doing?
This has got to be the most brazen example of foreign money being used to buy an American politician in our history. The company is shit, and its fundamentals are worse than a lemonade stand that uses antifreeze as a sweetener. The *only* value it has is that it buys influence from Trump, which is *exactly* why its value is directly correlated to the odds of him winning the presidency.
So when he loses the election, stock goes to negative $5 according to this chart. /s
Makes sense – what little value exists in that company (and there’s not much) will be sucked up to Trump attorney costs if he doesn’t win. If he loses, this stock will tank, he’ll cash out his position, and his Russian handlers will lose a small investment while a bunch of his cultists will lose substantial savings. It’s sad, but predictable.
And the divergence at the end is likely because he’s about to start dumping stock that he owns since he’ll legally be allowed to now.
That makes sense. There just isn’t much interest in Truth Social outside of Trump’s posts. The only reason a rational investor would buy in would be in hopes of getting influence in a future Trump administration.
Since NO ONE is saying it: What beautiful data we have here…
Does PredictIt have more data, before June? DJT IPO’d in October 2021, but your data starts just 3 months ago
that correlation ends tomorrow when only the bag holders will be left.
Tomorrow the stock is going to plummet as insiders will be allowed to sell their shares for the first time.
Trump said he wouldn’t sell so you KNOW he is absolutely going to.
Stocks always look at the future, which is why it’s lower than his present polls. Big investors know it’s a pump and dump and have started to exit already. His influence in politics is mostly over in November. They know it’s too late to sell once Trump sells, and you know that MF is dumping right after the election.
The company is not a contender in any aspect. There are penny stocks with much higher current and expected revenue. Trump, unfortunately, will profit off of the many “devoted” followers’ stock losses. DJT is a penny stock and will pobably be bankrupt if Trump loses.
There’s probably an inverse correlation of the Donald being convicted of more felonies.
Except you didn’t start the odds chart at 0… so yeah I guess “manipulation” of the data to look like whatever you want it to falls under the category of “data is beautiful” now?
Yeah no… posts are just getting worse and worse on Reddit lately aren’t they.
Either DJT is a bargain or PredictIt is overestimating Trump’s chances of victory.
I just feel bad for all the people who bought it. Hopefully it was a wake up call. However, i think people really think they can GameStop any stock to the moon when that’s just not how stocks work. Not to mention the grifters who convince them to do so
Weirdly interesting chart. Probably won’t remain correlated forever, but fun to see while it is.
This is not beautiful. This is an Excel chart.
And they made Jimmy Carter sell his peanut farm. Haw far we’ve fallen.
I don’t need data to tell me trump has no chance
Funny thing is what happens to the correlation after the election?
If the trend continues, there’s a good chance that the correlation will go to 100% (0 vs 0)
25 comments
SEC asleep at the wheel again for even letting this sham of a company be listed
What the hell is the SEC doing?
This has got to be the most brazen example of foreign money being used to buy an American politician in our history. The company is shit, and its fundamentals are worse than a lemonade stand that uses antifreeze as a sweetener. The *only* value it has is that it buys influence from Trump, which is *exactly* why its value is directly correlated to the odds of him winning the presidency.
So when he loses the election, stock goes to negative $5 according to this chart. /s
Makes sense – what little value exists in that company (and there’s not much) will be sucked up to Trump attorney costs if he doesn’t win. If he loses, this stock will tank, he’ll cash out his position, and his Russian handlers will lose a small investment while a bunch of his cultists will lose substantial savings. It’s sad, but predictable.
And the divergence at the end is likely because he’s about to start dumping stock that he owns since he’ll legally be allowed to now.
That makes sense. There just isn’t much interest in Truth Social outside of Trump’s posts. The only reason a rational investor would buy in would be in hopes of getting influence in a future Trump administration.
Who’s even buying the Trump stock?
Updated the right axis to zero. https://imgur.com/jynhqCy
Since NO ONE is saying it: What beautiful data we have here…
Does PredictIt have more data, before June? DJT IPO’d in October 2021, but your data starts just 3 months ago
that correlation ends tomorrow when only the bag holders will be left.
Tomorrow the stock is going to plummet as insiders will be allowed to sell their shares for the first time.
Trump said he wouldn’t sell so you KNOW he is absolutely going to.
Stocks always look at the future, which is why it’s lower than his present polls. Big investors know it’s a pump and dump and have started to exit already. His influence in politics is mostly over in November. They know it’s too late to sell once Trump sells, and you know that MF is dumping right after the election.
The company is not a contender in any aspect. There are penny stocks with much higher current and expected revenue. Trump, unfortunately, will profit off of the many “devoted” followers’ stock losses.
DJT is a penny stock and will pobably be bankrupt if Trump loses.
There’s probably an inverse correlation of the Donald being convicted of more felonies.
74% correlation is fairly weak
always entertaining: [https://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations](https://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations)
Except you didn’t start the odds chart at 0… so yeah I guess “manipulation” of the data to look like whatever you want it to falls under the category of “data is beautiful” now?
Yeah no… posts are just getting worse and worse on Reddit lately aren’t they.
Either DJT is a bargain or PredictIt is overestimating Trump’s chances of victory.
I just feel bad for all the people who bought it. Hopefully it was a wake up call. However, i think people really think they can GameStop any stock to the moon when that’s just not how stocks work. Not to mention the grifters who convince them to do so
Weirdly interesting chart. Probably won’t remain correlated forever, but fun to see while it is.
This is not beautiful. This is an Excel chart.
And they made Jimmy Carter sell his peanut farm. Haw far we’ve fallen.
I don’t need data to tell me trump has no chance
Funny thing is what happens to the correlation after the election?
If the trend continues, there’s a good chance that the correlation will go to 100% (0 vs 0)