HomeWorldDataWhat do returns look like when stock market is at all-time-high? Comparing 1 year stock market returns from all market days vs days with an all-time-high (ATH) [OC]
What do returns look like when stock market is at all-time-high? Comparing 1 year stock market returns from all market days vs days with an all-time-high (ATH) [OC]
September 20, 2024
What do returns look like when stock market is at all-time-high? Comparing 1 year stock market returns from all market days vs days with an all-time-high (ATH) [OC]
Posted by EngagingData
7 comments
Since the market just hit an all-time-high yesterday, I thought it would be good to post. This graph compares the histograms of 1 year returns for the dividend adjusted SP500 index for every market day (blue) from 1950 onwards with the 1 year returns for days when the market hit an all time high (orange). As you can see from the graph the distributions are *very* similar. Mean/median/quartiles are very close to each other.
If you believe the market moving forward will be similar to the market in the past, this implies that the future market returns from investing when the market is at an all time high is not any different than investing on any random day.
You can explore other time periods as well (1 week, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years) on the interactive website:
**Data and Tools**: daily, historical dividend adjusted prices for the S&P500 stock index are downloaded from Yahoo! Finance daily using a python script. The data for the visualizations and graphs were calculated using a program written in Javascript using the [Plot.ly](http://Plot.ly) engine to create the graphs and html/css/javascript was used to make the UI.
So not very relevant without more factors. Can be a bit better, can be a bit worse.
Pretty much aligns with don’t stress about when you buy monthly.
Oh sorry I thought that was the expected response around here.
It’s almost as if the market is (approximately) efficient.
(I don’t believe that the market is perfectly efficient. I think it is nearly so, and is very hard, but not impossible, to beat consistently.)
This data is SCREAMING for a T Test. Im too lazy to do it tho
One thing I have always been curious about is if there is a way to adjust this data for inflation? Sure the #s may look great, but is that partially due to inflation? (I honestly have 0 idea how they calculate these #s )
This isn’t particularly surprising because the market is very often at an all time high as it tends to go up over time, right?
The 1/10 ratio is a bit misleading because of the date grain. If you looked at it by week or month, the market would be ATH a lot more often
7 comments
Since the market just hit an all-time-high yesterday, I thought it would be good to post. This graph compares the histograms of 1 year returns for the dividend adjusted SP500 index for every market day (blue) from 1950 onwards with the 1 year returns for days when the market hit an all time high (orange). As you can see from the graph the distributions are *very* similar. Mean/median/quartiles are very close to each other.
If you believe the market moving forward will be similar to the market in the past, this implies that the future market returns from investing when the market is at an all time high is not any different than investing on any random day.
You can explore other time periods as well (1 week, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years) on the interactive website:
[**https://engaging-data.com/market-all-time-high/**](https://engaging-data.com/market-all-time-high/)
**Data and Tools**: daily, historical dividend adjusted prices for the S&P500 stock index are downloaded from Yahoo! Finance daily using a python script. The data for the visualizations and graphs were calculated using a program written in Javascript using the [Plot.ly](http://Plot.ly) engine to create the graphs and html/css/javascript was used to make the UI.
So not very relevant without more factors. Can be a bit better, can be a bit worse.
Pretty much aligns with don’t stress about when you buy monthly.
Wah wah wah, blah blah blah, details, graphs, sources!
Oh sorry I thought that was the expected response around here.
It’s almost as if the market is (approximately) efficient.
(I don’t believe that the market is perfectly efficient. I think it is nearly so, and is very hard, but not impossible, to beat consistently.)
This data is SCREAMING for a T Test. Im too lazy to do it tho
One thing I have always been curious about is if there is a way to adjust this data for inflation? Sure the #s may look great, but is that partially due to inflation? (I honestly have 0 idea how they calculate these #s )
This isn’t particularly surprising because the market is very often at an all time high as it tends to go up over time, right?
The 1/10 ratio is a bit misleading because of the date grain. If you looked at it by week or month, the market would be ATH a lot more often