HomeWorldPoliticsAmerica Needs a New Strategy to Avert Even Greater Catastrophe in the Middle East: Shuttle Diplomacy Must Be Backed by Meaningful Pressure
[SS from essay by Andrew P. Miller, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs from December 2022 to June 2024.]
Nearly a year after Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack, the Israeli government’s ongoing escalation of its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon has put the Middle East on the precipice of a regional war—one that could all too easily draw in the United States. Although Israeli leaders believe that intensified military action will cause the militant group to back down, this sort of “escalate to de-escalate” strategy seldom achieves the desired results. Hezbollah has consistently tied the cessation of its attacks on Israel to a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, and that remains unlikely to change in the wake of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death in an Israeli airstrike on Friday. Even if a 21-day cease-fire were declared between Israel and Hezbollah, as U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have called for, it would not alter the underlying reality: the best way to prevent a larger regional conflagration is a cease-fire in Gaza.
Unfortunately, negotiations between Israel and Hamas over their war in Gaza appear to be at an impasse over three months after Biden outlined a framework for a cease-fire and deal on the return of Israeli hostages. Both parties have moved the goalposts, adding new conditions or demanding new concessions. After weeks of projecting optimism, Biden administration officials reportedly now [concede](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-deal-unlikely-before-end-of-bidens-term-u-s-officials-say-efc21510?mod=middle-east_more_article_pos8) that “no deal is imminent.” And the window for reaching a deal is rapidly closing ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, at which point Biden’s lame-duck status will diminish his international influence.
American foreign policy in the Middle East has been by turns indifferent, inconsistent, incoherent and ineffective. The US wants both to be hands-off and uninvolved, while also getting its way when it actually cares about something. These are incompatible. Pick one. And then stick to it. Foreign policy is not an area where you can flip-flop.
Now while the US embarrasses itself making public demands that everyone ignores the Middle East is making its own decisions and reacting to events as they occur. (Also the idea that an entire region of multiple sovereign countries should line up and behave so that the US election isn’t disturbed, is so egocentric it’s funny.)
it’s a catastrophe for Iran. it has and always has been a catastrophe for the Palestinian people.
the rest of the Middle East powers will be happy to see Iran defanged.
Or possibly, possibly, the US says some things to for specific audiences (gulf states, progressive Democrats) but behind the scenes is quite happy with how things are turning out.
4 comments
[SS from essay by Andrew P. Miller, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs from December 2022 to June 2024.]
Nearly a year after Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack, the Israeli government’s ongoing escalation of its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon has put the Middle East on the precipice of a regional war—one that could all too easily draw in the United States. Although Israeli leaders believe that intensified military action will cause the militant group to back down, this sort of “escalate to de-escalate” strategy seldom achieves the desired results. Hezbollah has consistently tied the cessation of its attacks on Israel to a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, and that remains unlikely to change in the wake of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death in an Israeli airstrike on Friday. Even if a 21-day cease-fire were declared between Israel and Hezbollah, as U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron have called for, it would not alter the underlying reality: the best way to prevent a larger regional conflagration is a cease-fire in Gaza.
Unfortunately, negotiations between Israel and Hamas over their war in Gaza appear to be at an impasse over three months after Biden outlined a framework for a cease-fire and deal on the return of Israeli hostages. Both parties have moved the goalposts, adding new conditions or demanding new concessions. After weeks of projecting optimism, Biden administration officials reportedly now [concede](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-deal-unlikely-before-end-of-bidens-term-u-s-officials-say-efc21510?mod=middle-east_more_article_pos8) that “no deal is imminent.” And the window for reaching a deal is rapidly closing ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, at which point Biden’s lame-duck status will diminish his international influence.
American foreign policy in the Middle East has been by turns indifferent, inconsistent, incoherent and ineffective. The US wants both to be hands-off and uninvolved, while also getting its way when it actually cares about something. These are incompatible. Pick one. And then stick to it. Foreign policy is not an area where you can flip-flop.
Now while the US embarrasses itself making public demands that everyone ignores the Middle East is making its own decisions and reacting to events as they occur. (Also the idea that an entire region of multiple sovereign countries should line up and behave so that the US election isn’t disturbed, is so egocentric it’s funny.)
it’s a catastrophe for Iran.
it has and always has been a catastrophe for the Palestinian people.
the rest of the Middle East powers will be happy to see Iran defanged.
Or possibly, possibly, the US says some things to for specific audiences (gulf states, progressive Democrats) but behind the scenes is quite happy with how things are turning out.