Is this a sign of economic success? The ruble continues to fall because no one has confidence in the Russian economy.
October 5, 2024
Is this a sign of economic success? The ruble continues to fall because no one has confidence in the Russian economy.
https://i.redd.it/u8i97hnbfxsd1.png
by Low_Two_8082
36 comments
“Everything is going according to plan” – Vlad
Oil is not as big of a shock like it used to few decades ago. Even if prices spike most major economies have enough capacity to weather that storm. If Russia cannot hold that leverage there is no reason for money to flow into that country. Their fundamental issues that were already apparent are gonna get worse over time if they do not stop this war. They are gonna end up bartering for food in exchange of oil and minerals.
This doesn’t mean much in on itself, you would also need to look at production, wages etc. Consider also that different currencies might be used to facilitate trade, and hide it a bit.
This is all part of our special economics operation against the world economy.
Comrade, on the graph it’s clearly stated in big shift EUR. So no worries. Euro is falling.
ECB is cutting rates while the Russian central bank outlook is increasing rates. Economy is running hot, increasing inflation. Therefore it’s quite normal.
I mean the price is pretty much the same as it was before the invasion.
Russia has been using its National Wealth Fund to prop up ‘rubble’ and patch up holes in the economy. They’ve already used half of the liquid assets in it, and their central bank said they’ll run out of the other part next year (If there are no changes). This is when the real fun will begin.
**Edit**: This is also why it’s extremely important to make sure russia can’t circumvent sanctions AND keep piling up more sanctions on them. The easiest way to defeat them is to make their economy collapse.
Pootin said it’s all good because they get more roubles this way. Like actually he did, not a joke.
An obvious economic hardship for Russia is kicking in.
I got 99 roubles and but their value is gone
Elivra Nabiullina on suicide watch, she did everything she could to save the economy
She also opposed the war and tried to resign, but you can’t really say no to Putin
How long until they introduce a kIloRuble? Currently 1 000 rubles equals 9,53 EUR.
Because the Ruble is kinda like Monopoly money: it only works within the game/country and is more or less useless outside of Russia because no sane person who has alternatives would use it.
Its “value” has been propped up by massive government investments and European demand for fossil fuel before Europe was able to reduce its dependency. Now, most of the benefits of the war economy are running out, and Putin will be in trouble soon.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but looking at one month performance of any currency says literally nothing about the big picture even if the drop looks big as this one. For example, you could find much more dire looking months for Turkish Lira and while their economy is not exactly in good shape, it’s not collapsing either.
Edit: I just checked, if you look at 1 year chart it doesn’t look that bad actually. Talk about nitpicking data.
Ruble has stop being traded by US and Europe. Plus many Chinese banks don’t even accept it anymore.
Searching Ruble vs Euro on Google is literal useless information at that point. It does not have many well established bases of comparison to make a good evaluation of the currency. It’s like asking “how much does moondust cost” when nobody trades moondust. Nothing. It costs nothing in the western world because it’s worth nothing
euro is also shitcoin backed by nothing
I’m very glad ☺️
Ruble to EUR value is the same as 12 months ago.
Ruble to USD is actually higher than a year ago.
This charts time window is too small.
Use stronger currency first, so it is USD / RUB or EUR / RUB and not the opposite. You will get cleaner results.
This is what stability looks like in Putin’s Russia
No surprise, Russian officials themselves have forecasted a depreciation in the RUB for the 2nd half of the year and the same thing for next year. The “problem” is that secondary sanctions (or risk of) come a bit late and not strong enough, the EUR should have been back above 100 RUB for a while now.
No one can trade RUB anyway. Most of the trade happens in materials for some other currency or barter style (Russia gives China gas/oil, they give them tanks or weapons, and so on), so RUB is only for Russian citizens. The rich ones have their richess in other currencies or other stuff as well.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not siding with Russia in any way, but this is definitely not a good indicator to look at, because it doesn’t mean anything and doesn’t paint the whole picture.
So,
> The ruble continues to fall because no one has confidence in the Russian economy
is incorrect.
WTF is a Russian Economy?
BRICS fixes this.
Looks like planning to spend more than 40% of budget on military, secret services and police is not getting seen as sign of healthy growing economy.
OP speedrunning low effort content ban.
It’s way below that rate, it is just artificially restricted in access – you can’t easily change it so any number will be misleading.
Gdp +3% . As if they care
If you don’t look on just one month, but on year or even longer, you will see, that it is not such a continuus decline, as you imply. E.g. it is currently higher than it was 2023. And it is way higher than at the start of the war – while it is generally lower than before the war.
To be honest: As one of the strongest sanctioned countries worldwide, I would usually expect way worse stuff.
If you don’t look on just one month, but on year or even longer, you will see, that it is not such a continuus decline, as you imply. E.g. it is currently higher than it was 2023. And it is way higher than at the start of the war – while it is generally lower than before the war.
To be honest: As one of the strongest sanctioned countries worldwide, I would usually expect way worse stuff.
Ruble is still stronger today than it was exactly 1 year ago, I wonder if theres some seasonal variation that causes it to fall every autumn, maybe the Central Bank deliberately drowns the currency to capitalise on fossil fuel sales spiking before winter?
weaker currency makes exports more profitable so its not necessarily a bad sign for Russia – an export economy
While the crypto currency is going up. Draw your own conclusions.
Would love to see thier economy crash but nitpicking the data – for not a meaningful metric (in a vacum) at that, just to sell a pleasant narrative is not doing anything good IMO.
36 comments
“Everything is going according to plan” – Vlad
Oil is not as big of a shock like it used to few decades ago. Even if prices spike most major economies have enough capacity to weather that storm. If Russia cannot hold that leverage there is no reason for money to flow into that country. Their fundamental issues that were already apparent are gonna get worse over time if they do not stop this war. They are gonna end up bartering for food in exchange of oil and minerals.
This doesn’t mean much in on itself, you would also need to look at production, wages etc. Consider also that different currencies might be used to facilitate trade, and hide it a bit.
This is all part of our special economics operation against the world economy.
Comrade, on the graph it’s clearly stated in big shift EUR. So no worries. Euro is falling.
ECB is cutting rates while the Russian central bank outlook is increasing rates. Economy is running hot, increasing inflation. Therefore it’s quite normal.
I mean the price is pretty much the same as it was before the invasion.
Russia has been using its National Wealth Fund to prop up ‘rubble’ and patch up holes in the economy. They’ve already used half of the liquid assets in it, and their central bank said they’ll run out of the other part next year (If there are no changes). This is when the real fun will begin.
**Edit**: This is also why it’s extremely important to make sure russia can’t circumvent sanctions AND keep piling up more sanctions on them. The easiest way to defeat them is to make their economy collapse.
Pootin said it’s all good because they get more roubles this way.
Like actually he did, not a joke.
An obvious economic hardship for Russia is kicking in.
I got 99 roubles and but their value is gone
Elivra Nabiullina on suicide watch, she did everything she could to save the economy
She also opposed the war and tried to resign, but you can’t really say no to Putin
How long until they introduce a kIloRuble? Currently 1 000 rubles equals 9,53 EUR.
Because the Ruble is kinda like Monopoly money: it only works within the game/country and is more or less useless outside of Russia because no sane person who has alternatives would use it.
Its “value” has been propped up by massive government investments and European demand for fossil fuel before Europe was able to reduce its dependency. Now, most of the benefits of the war economy are running out, and Putin will be in trouble soon.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but looking at one month performance of any currency says literally nothing about the big picture even if the drop looks big as this one. For example, you could find much more dire looking months for Turkish Lira and while their economy is not exactly in good shape, it’s not collapsing either.
Edit: I just checked, if you look at 1 year chart it doesn’t look that bad actually. Talk about nitpicking data.
Ruble has stop being traded by US and Europe. Plus many Chinese banks don’t even accept it anymore.
Searching Ruble vs Euro on Google is literal useless information at that point. It does not have many well established bases of comparison to make a good evaluation of the currency. It’s like asking “how much does moondust cost” when nobody trades moondust. Nothing. It costs nothing in the western world because it’s worth nothing
euro is also shitcoin backed by nothing
I’m very glad ☺️
Ruble to EUR value is the same as 12 months ago.
Ruble to USD is actually higher than a year ago.
This charts time window is too small.
Use stronger currency first, so it is USD / RUB or EUR / RUB and not the opposite. You will get cleaner results.
This time scale isn’t very helpful, you can see [here](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-EUR?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwio2KLboveIAxVmlP0HHe7FCYQQmY0JegQICRAp&window=5Y) that it is basically where it was three years ago. Also exchange rate alone is a flawed metric for evaluating the economy.
This is what stability looks like in Putin’s Russia
No surprise, Russian officials themselves have forecasted a depreciation in the RUB for the 2nd half of the year and the same thing for next year. The “problem” is that secondary sanctions (or risk of) come a bit late and not strong enough, the EUR should have been back above 100 RUB for a while now.
No one can trade RUB anyway. Most of the trade happens in materials for some other currency or barter style (Russia gives China gas/oil, they give them tanks or weapons, and so on), so RUB is only for Russian citizens. The rich ones have their richess in other currencies or other stuff as well.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not siding with Russia in any way, but this is definitely not a good indicator to look at, because it doesn’t mean anything and doesn’t paint the whole picture.
So,
> The ruble continues to fall because no one has confidence in the Russian economy
is incorrect.
WTF is a Russian Economy?
BRICS fixes this.
Looks like planning to spend more than 40% of budget on military, secret services and police is not getting seen as sign of healthy growing economy.
OP speedrunning low effort content ban.
It’s way below that rate, it is just artificially restricted in access – you can’t easily change it so any number will be misleading.
Gdp +3% . As if they care
If you don’t look on just one month, but on year or even longer, you will see, that it is not such a continuus decline, as you imply. E.g. it is currently higher than it was 2023. And it is way higher than at the start of the war – while it is generally lower than before the war.
[https://www.finanzen.net/devisen/russischer_rubel-euro-kurs](https://www.finanzen.net/devisen/russischer_rubel-euro-kurs)
To be honest: As one of the strongest sanctioned countries worldwide, I would usually expect way worse stuff.
If you don’t look on just one month, but on year or even longer, you will see, that it is not such a continuus decline, as you imply. E.g. it is currently higher than it was 2023. And it is way higher than at the start of the war – while it is generally lower than before the war.
[https://www.finanzen.net/devisen/russischer_rubel-euro-kurs](https://www.finanzen.net/devisen/russischer_rubel-euro-kurs)
To be honest: As one of the strongest sanctioned countries worldwide, I would usually expect way worse stuff.
Ruble is still stronger today than it was exactly 1 year ago, I wonder if theres some seasonal variation that causes it to fall every autumn, maybe the Central Bank deliberately drowns the currency to capitalise on fossil fuel sales spiking before winter?
weaker currency makes exports more profitable so its not necessarily a bad sign for Russia – an export economy
While the crypto currency is going up. Draw your own conclusions.
Ofc it is. Especially together with this.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/10/02/russia-to-accept-mandarins-instead-of-money-amid-payment-difficulties-a86543
Would love to see thier economy crash but nitpicking the data – for not a meaningful metric (in a vacum) at that, just to sell a pleasant narrative is not doing anything good IMO.