UUkraine

OSINT researcher Richard Vereker commented on a recent RUSI analysis that claimed that 85% of Russian armored vehicles are reactivated Soviet-era stocks, while 15% are new combat vehicles.

  • October 12, 2024

OSINT researcher Richard Vereker commented on a recent RUSI analysis that claimed that 85% of Russian armored vehicles are reactivated Soviet-era stocks, while 15% are new combat vehicles. Vereker decided to look at the situation in more detail, since the RUSI analysis did not differentiate between tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers, and compare it with visually documented loss data.

He notes that the new Russian tanks are the T-90M and T-90S. They account for only 7.27% of all Russian tank losses during the full-scale war. At the same time, among the Russian BMP/APCs produced, the BMP-3, BMD-4 and BTR-82 can be singled out (some of which are new, and some are modernized BTR-80s; Vereker suggests that about half were newly produced and half were restored). Among the BMP/APCs, the share of new armored vehicles during the entire full-scale war was 25.92%.

Vereker believes that the Russians have upgraded all their T-90As to the T-90M standard, which explains the increase in the use rate (and therefore losses) of these tanks in 2023. However, these reserves are now exhausted, and the loss rate has fallen. Based on the rate of withdrawal of tanks from storage and the loss rate of T-90s, Vereker believes that the rate of production of completely new tanks in the Russian Federation is only 50 units per year – much less than their media claims.

The proportion of new IFV/APC losses at the start of the full-scale war was 30%, then dropped to 22%. It has now risen again to 29% and continues to rise. Moreover, the ratio of tank losses to IFV/APC losses, which was 1 to 2 for most of the war, has now risen to 1 to 4.35. Vereker believes that this statistic reflects the fact that the Russians have invested much more resources in producing new IFVs and APCs than in tanks. And now it is somewhat easier for them to compensate for losses among infantry fighting vehicles than to compensate for losses of tanks.

@yigal_levin

by Hotrico

11 comments

  1. The quality of the modernized models is obviously inferior to that of the models produced before the war, today’s T-90M and T-72B3M do not have the same quality as they had in 2022 and this has already been verified by captures made by the Ukrainians

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  2. So nothing new, to what other OSINT’s already told us.

    Just the increasing number of new builds is disturbing.

  3. So Russia now thinks that IFVs are more important than pulling out rotten T-72s out of long term storage? That would be proof that there are at least traces of thinking in Russian army leadership. These old tanks are blown up by drones easily, while there is probably a slightly better chance for Russian mobiks to survive a drone attack in an IFV than in a convertible lada or a scooby doo van. Anyway the big question remains unanswered: when are they finally running out of something that eventually stops them building and refurbishing new armour?

  4. [taps head]

    The peasants can’t rebel if there’s no military technology left to use.

  5. I love it.. The once feared Russian army, is running out of their Soviet inheritance.. Russia’s war on Ukraine has totally backfired.. Russia has weakened, while Russia’s neighbors and NATO have only strengthened against Russia.. And I think another cold war will have similar results against Russia, as it did the USSR..

  8. This is the reason you see russian trolls all over the web (and Reddit too) argue for a ceasefire in whatever form. russia needs a break so they can re-arm and the best way to do that is to create a ceasefire, which will give them ample opportunity to continue their sabotage campaign which will cost very little in material. Don’t buy into any of it, keep up the pressure and their whole house of cards will collapse, sooner or later, but possibly much sooner than we think. You can have all of the manpower, but without the material it doesn’t really matter much.

  9. I always assumed the tanks were old soviet stock… plus a few new ones put in as budget allowed

  11. They are running out of equipment. If Ukraine can hold up with maybe 1 more year they win this war. Slava Ukraine!

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