This trend is documented for all Russian equipment. And he says toward the end that I’ve pointed out before a bunch, but doesn’t get stressed as much as it should in the larger production/industrial logiatics talk.
For tanks, for artillery, for rocket artillery, for self propelled artillery, for APCs, for IFVs it’s about the same: Russian stockpiles of old Soviet equipment has been emptied. The stockpiles are outright *gone* in a lot of depots, or noticeably halved or less in those with remaining stock. And the remaining stock is noticeably bad shape or hulks being raided for spare parts rather than on the docket to be refurbished.
**80% of Russian production in all those categories, tanks, IFVss, artillery….are refurbished old stock**. Out of every 5 units Russia pushes out….1 is new. 4 are refitted old stock, and that stock is going, going gone.
Russias burn rate is greater than their replacement rate. And that replacement is 80% old stock that is disappearing.
There’s a reason the logistics discussion and articles point to this being an attritional war that Ukraine is winning, and Russia has about 1.5 years left before they simply can’t fight.
This is what happens when you perform artillery strikes on non-military targets and focus your attacks on levelling entire cities purely because ‘If I can’t have them’.
Still, I don’t think Putin will stop the war even if he had not a single bullet. His life depends on a win.
This lack of ammo is why they’re making chemical attacks.
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This trend is documented for all Russian equipment. And he says toward the end that I’ve pointed out before a bunch, but doesn’t get stressed as much as it should in the larger production/industrial logiatics talk.
For tanks, for artillery, for rocket artillery, for self propelled artillery, for APCs, for IFVs it’s about the same: Russian stockpiles of old Soviet equipment has been emptied. The stockpiles are outright *gone* in a lot of depots, or noticeably halved or less in those with remaining stock. And the remaining stock is noticeably bad shape or hulks being raided for spare parts rather than on the docket to be refurbished.
**80% of Russian production in all those categories, tanks, IFVss, artillery….are refurbished old stock**. Out of every 5 units Russia pushes out….1 is new. 4 are refitted old stock, and that stock is going, going gone.
Russias burn rate is greater than their replacement rate. And that replacement is 80% old stock that is disappearing.
There’s a reason the logistics discussion and articles point to this being an attritional war that Ukraine is winning, and Russia has about 1.5 years left before they simply can’t fight.
This is what happens when you perform artillery strikes on non-military targets and focus your attacks on levelling entire cities purely because ‘If I can’t have them’.
Still, I don’t think Putin will stop the war even if he had not a single bullet. His life depends on a win.
This lack of ammo is why they’re making chemical attacks.