Volcanic eruption started at Sundhnúks crater row at 21:26 UTC tonight, 22 August. This photo is taken one hour after the eruption started and the eruption fracture is estimated approximately 4 km long. Photo: Björn Oddsson/Civil Protection.
Models reveal that the volume of magma is now approximately two-thirds
of what accumulated before the last eruption on August 22
Updated 22. October at 15:30 UTC
GPS measurements
and model calculations in the Svartsengi area show that ground uplift and magma
accumulation continue.If the current
rate of magma accumulation in the reservoir continues, the lower uncertainty
threshold for the volume of magma that might culminate in a dike intrusion or
eruption will be reached in early November.The current hazard
assessment remains in effect until October 29, barring any changes.
Ground uplift and magma accumulation beneath
Svartsengi are progressing at a rate consistent with recent weeks. Seismic
activity has slightly increased in recent days, with around five earthquakes per
day occurring along the dyke. The largest earthquake had a magnitude of 1.5.
Model calculations based on GPS data indicate that the
volume of magma that has accumulated beneath Svartsengi is now approximately two-thirds
of what it was before the previous eruption, which began on August 22.
If magma
inflow continues at a similar rate, the lower uncertainty threshold that might
feed a new intrusion or eruption is expected to be reached in early November.
If a significant increase in seismic activity is detected around the same time,
it could suggest that the likelihood of a new magma intrusion and a potential
eruption is increasing. This likelihood will gradually rise as more magma
accumulates and seismic activity intensifies.
A graph showing
the progression of magma accumulation and the estimated total volume of magma
in the reservoir beneath
Svartsengi as of October 25 (red
curve). The total volume of magma beneath Svartsengi is currently about
two-thirds of what accumulated before the previous eruption began on August 22 (green curve).
Volume estimated through model calculations
The volume of magma that has accumulated beneath
Svartsengi since the last eruption ended is estimated to be 14 million cubic
meters, according to model calculations. It is estimated that around 24 million
cubic meters of magma exited the magma chamber during the last eruption, which
began on August 22 and was the largest eruption in this sequence of events. The
uncertainty in these calculations is approximately +/- 5 million cubic meters. The
volume of magma beneath Svartsengi is therefore projected to reach a value that
is comparable to what it was before the last eruption when it enters within the
range defined by the “lower uncertainty limit” (19 million cubic
meters) and the “upper uncertainty limit” (29 million cubic meters).
The models, which are based on GPS data and are updated
daily, indicate how much magma has accumulated since the last magma intrusion,
providing an estimation of when the uncertainty thresholds may be reached.
These models are based on the estimated inflow of magma into the reservoir
beneath Svartsengi, and small changes in that flow can affect the final
assessment. It is difficult to determine how far beyond these previously observed
limits the magma volume can increase before an eruption starts. The trend has shown
that the time between eruptions is increasing, as the volume of magma required
to trigger the next magma intrusion or eruption appears to be increasing over
time. It is possible that the risk of an eruption may be assessed to be high
for some time before an event begins.
Updated 17. October at 16:00 UTC
Based on the current measurements, we
estimate about 4-5 weeks until a new eruption will be considered likely
GPS measurements in
Svartsengi area show that inflation continues at a similar rate
Warning immediately
prior to an eruption can be short, even as short as only 30 minutes
Continue to be few earthquakes around the
Sundhnúkar crater row
Hazard assessment unchanged
The progression of magma accumulation beneath
and land uplift above Svartsengi has remained unchanged in recent weeks. GPS
measurements in the Svartsengi area suggest that the land uplift continues at a
steady rate. It slowed down slightly about 1-2 weeks ago but has not diminished
further. While the rate of land uplift has diminished slightly, there is no
indication that magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi has stopped.
Ground movement at the GPS station SENG in
Svartsengi since November 11, 2023 in the north, east, and vertical directions
(top, middle, bottom). The bottom graph shows vertical movement in millimeters.
Yesterday´s measurement (October 16) is shown with a green point. The red lines
mark the start of the previous eruptions, which began on December 18, 2023,
January 14, February 8, March 16, May 29 and August 22, 2024. The blue lines
indicate dyke movements that did not result in an eruption on November 10, 2023
and March 2, 2024.
Experience of
previous dyke movements and eruptions helps with estimating how much magma
needs to accumulate beneath Svartsengi to trigger the next event. Models
calculate that about 24 million m3 of magma left the magma accumulation zone
beneath Svartsengi to erupt at the Sundhnúkur crater row in the last eruption
that started August 22. There has been a trend that the same amount or more magma than left during the last event has needed
to accumulate prior to each subsequent dyke movement or eruption.
If magma accumulation
continues at a similar rate as now the most likely outcome is considered a dike
propagation and possibly an eruption at the Sundhnúks crater row. At this point
there still significant uncertainty in the possible timing of the next event. The magma
accumulation will be monitored closely and efforts will be made to assess the
time to the next event when more data
will be available for analysis.
Warnings immediately prior to an eruption can be very short
When magma starts to move, the first signs
are an increase in earthquakes, rapid changes in ground deformation and
pressure changes in boreholes. The time between the first signal and when an
eruption might start can be very short. There were only 30 minutes prior to the
most recent eruption on August 22.
This assessment is based on the newest
monitoring data from the Met Office and developments will continue to be
closely monitored. There remains significant uncertainty about the timing of
the next potential event and if the rate of magma accumulation changes this
will affect the forecast.
Earthquakes around the Sundhnúkur crater row
remain few but there continue to be several earthquakes per day for the past
month. Earthquake activity west of Fagradalsfjall has diminished over the past
few weeks.
The hazard assessment from the Met Office has
been updated and remains unchanged. There remains the hazard of sinkholes in
Area 4, Grindavík. The hazard assessment is valid until October 29 barring any
developments.
(Click on the map to make it larger)
Updated 24. September at 14:00 UTC
Land uplift continues at a similar rate
Total volume of the last eruption is just over 60 million m3
Minor seismic activity at the Sundhnúkur crater row for the last
few weeks
Data from GPS instruments suggest that the land
uplift in Svartsengi continues at a steady rate. Model calculations based on
this data also suggest that magma accumulation beneath Svarstengi has continued
at a similar rate for the last weeks. According to measurements of land uplift
and estimates of the rate of magma accumulation, the development is similar to
previous events in the area.
The photogrammetry team of the Icelandic Institute of
Natural History (IIHN) and the National Land Survey of Iceland (NLSI) has
processed data collected by specialists at Efla Consulting Engineers during a
drone survey over the eruption site on 11 September. The data show that the
lava flow field formed in the last eruption (22 August – 5 September) was 61.2
million m3 and 15.8 km2. This makes this last eruption
the largest in the Sundhnúkur area since December 2023. The thickest part of
the lava flow field is located around the crater that was active the longest.
Map showing the extent and
thickness of the lava flow field formed during the last eruption. The map is
based on data collected by specialists at Efla Consulting Engineers which was
processed by the photogrammetry team of IIHN and NLSI. Grey colored areas show
lava flow fields in the area since December 2023.
Seismic activity has been minimal for the last two weeks in the
Sundhnúkur crater row. However, there has been some activity in the western
part of Fagradalsfjall at a depth of about 6-8 km since the eruption ended on 5
September. There has also been considerable activity in Trölladyngja in the
last few days. Most of the earthquakes in the area are small, but the largest
one was of magnitude 3.0 on 22 September, just east of Trölladyngja. No
deformation has been detected in the area around Trölladyngja.
Map showing seismic activity on the Reykjanes
peninsula from 6th of 24th of September. The map also shows the contours of the
lava flow field that formed in the last eruption. The contours of the lava are
based on data collected
by specialists at Efla Consulting Engineers which was processed by the
photogrammetry team of IIHN and NLSI.
Updated 19. September at 17:00 UTC
Uplift at Svartsengi
continues at a steady rate
Very little seismicity
since the end of the last eruption
Updated hazard
assessment. Valid until 3 October, barring any developments
Two weeks have passed
since the end of the last eruption in the Sundhnúkur crater row. GPS data
indicate that the uplift in Svartsengi continues at a steady rate. Model
calculations based on this data estimate that magma accumulation beneath
Svartsengi also continues at a similar rate. This trend is similar to what has
been observed between the last magma propagations and volcanic eruptions on the
Sundhnúkur crater row.
As long as magma
accumulation continues beneath Svartsengi and the amount of magma reaches
similar levels as prior to recent events, magma propagation and even a volcanic
eruption can be expected on the Sundhnúkur crater row. However, it is too early
to say when that might occur. Looking at the last two events, it is unlikely
that an event will take place in the coming weeks.
The graph
shows the estimated amount of magma that has been added in the magma reservoir
beneath Svartsengi between the eruptions or magma propagations that have
occurred since November 2023. The green line shows the development of the magma
accumulation between the last two eruptions. The red line shows the development
of magma accumulation after the beginning of the last eruption (22 August),
which shows a similar development as the green one.
Updated hazard assessment
The Icelandic
Meteorological Office has updated the hazard assessment, which is valid until 3
October, barring any developments.
Considerable changes have
been made, the main ones concern the assessment of the hazard due to fissure
movements and sinkholes, but these two hazards have been lowered for almost all
zones.
The lava field is still
very hot and the hazard from it is therefore considered high in the areas where
lava flowed during the last eruption and gas pollution from the lava field is
considerable. The hazard from tephra fall is now at the lowest level in all
zones.
In the new hazard
assessment, the overall hazard for Zone 4 – Grindavík – is assessed as
“moderate” (yellow level), but the hazard due to sinkholes is assessed higher,
or “considerable”. The Icelandic Meteorological Office would like to point out
that the Grindavík Committee is still working on fencing off and marking
hazardous areas within the town. The hazard assessment does not take into
account such mitigation measures that are considered necessary to prevent
possible accidents or damage caused by the hazard that exists at any given
time.
In addition to the hazard
assessed by IMO, there are other factors that affect how much hazard is
associated with staying in the town at any given time, such as limited escape
routes, houses that can collapse, the hazard of damaged electrical cables, and due
to construction work filling up fissures in the streets.
Updated 17. september at 16:00 UTC
The hazard assessment
from IMO has been updated and remains unchanged. The hazard assessment is valid
until 19. September barring any developments.
Updated 10. September at 17:00 UTC
Magma accumulation
resumes beneath Svartsengi
Rate of uplift similar to
previous events
The lava flow front is
still active and thus unstable and there is a risk of collapsing from it
The eruption site is dangerous
to navigate
Updated hazard assessment
Magma accumulation
continues beneath Svartsengi. The rate of the uplift seems similar to that of
previous events.
While magma accumulation
continues beneath Svartsengi, magma propagation and even a volcanic eruption
can be expected in the Sundhnúkur crater row. It is too soon to predict whether
or when the next event might occur.
The lava flow front is
still active even though the eruption is over. The lava can be expected to
continue creeping forward over the next few days and there is a risk of
collapse from it. The eruption site is therefore dangerous to navigate.
The hazard assessment
from IMO has been updated and remains unchanged. The hazard assessment is valid
until 17 September barring any developments.
Updated 6. September at 16:00 UTC
No visible activity at the craters since yesterday
eveningGround uplift
has started again in the Svartsengi areaThe eruption lasted 14 daysThe hazard assessment is updated
The eruption which commenced on 22 August is now
declared over, hence the hazard assessment has been updated. The main changes
affect Zone 3, where the eruptive fissures opened at the beginning of the
eruption. Zone 3 is now assessed to be at high hazard level (red) since the
likelihood for vent openings, gas pollution and tephra fallout are assessed to
be lower than before. Zone 6 is now assessed to be at considerable hazard as
the likelihood of gas pollution is reduced. Within Zone 1 (Svartsengi) hazards
are assessed to have either low or very-low likelihood.
Ground uplift has started again in the Svartsengi
region indicating that magma has started accumulating within the magma body at
4-5 km depth. IMO will continue monitoring the ground deformation rate, but
preliminary results from geodetic modelling indicate that the magma is
accumulating at a rate which is like those estimated in periods which followed
the end of previous eruptions.
The sketch shows the ”closed” system when the magma flows from depth (red arrow) into the Svartsengi reservoir to a shallower level at 4-5 km (orange domain) causing an increase in pressure and measurable ground deformation at the surface.
Updated 5. September at 15:00 UTC
The intensity of the eruption
continues to weaken
GPS measurements indicate that
uplift at Svartsengi has resumed
Southwesterly
winds are present at the eruption site, with a speed of 13-20 m/s. Air
pollution from volcanic gas may be detected in Vatnsleysa and
the capital area
The hazard assessment remains
mostly unchanged
The activity of the eruption has continued to decrease in recent days.
However, two eruptive vents still appear to be active.
The lava field north of the eruption site continues to thicken and expand
slowly to the north. At this point, the active lava flow does not threaten
infrastructure near the eruption site. Furthermore, changes in volcanic tremor and gas emissions indicate that the
eruption has diminished significantly in recent days.
A map showing
the actively expanding part of
the lava field that formed
during this eruption. The map is based on data from the Iceye satellite.
GPS measurements suggest that
ground uplift has started again in Svartsengi. Meanwhile, the amount of lava extruded
in the eruption at the Sundhnúkur crater row has decreased. This suggests that
the influx of magma into the reservoir beneath Svartsengi is greater than the
outflow from the surface eruption. This development is similar to what was observed
after the last eruption began on May 29. In that
instance, the uplift at Svartsengi became noticeable approximately two weeks
after the eruption started.
Graph showing the estimated amount of magma
that has accumulated beneath Svartsengi between the series of eruptions and
intrusions that have been ongoing since November 2023. The green line shows the
development of magma accumulation between the last two eruptions. The red line
shows the development of magma accumulation after the current eruption began, following
a very similar pattern to the green line.
The weather forecast for today (Thursday) shows
southwesterly winds with a speed of 13-20 m/s at the eruption site, with some
rain or drizzle in the morning and wind speeds decreasing to 10-15 m/s. Gas pollution
from the eruption is expected to travel north and northeast and may be detected
in Vatnsleysa and the capital area.
Seismic activity has slowed since the eruption began
on August 22. In recent days, the activity has decreased further, with very
little earthquake activity recorded. However, strong winds can affect the
sensitivity of the seismic monitoring system, preventing small earthquakes from
being detected.
The hazard assessment remains mostly unchanged, except
that the risk from volcanic ash is now considered lower. The map is valid until
September 10, barring any changes.
(Click on the map to make it larger)
Updated 3. September at 17:30 UTC
Today’s weather
forecast indicates a northwesterly wind, which will carry air pollution to the
southeast.The hazard
assessment has been updated. The map has been expanded by 2 km to the northeast
in zones 3, 5, and 6.The hazard level
in zone 5 has been downgraded from high to considerable.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office has updated its
hazard assessment to reflect developments in the eruption, and this update
remains valid until September 5, unless significant changes occur. The main update
to the current assessment is that zone 5 has moved from high risk (red) to
considerable risk (orange). This downgrade is due to a reduced risk of ashfall.
The risk of gas pollution has been assessed considering the weather forecast
for each zone over the coming days.
Another update to the hazard assessment map is that
zones 3, 5, and 6 have been expanded by 2 km to the northeast. This change was
made for two reasons. First, the new lava field created in this eruption has
extended beyond the previous boundaries of these zones. Second, the magma dike formed
on August 22 extended further northeast than zone 3 previously covered.
Updated 3. September at 14:00 UTC
The influx of
magma into the reservoir beneath Svartsengi is likely equal to the outflow from
the eruption.
Two active eruptive
vents are located along the northern part of the fissure.
Seismic activity
has decreased in recent days.
The hazard
assessment will be updated later today.
In the past few days, no land uplift or subsidence has
been detected at Svartsengi. This suggests that the inflow of magma into the
reservoir beneath Svartsengi is comparable to the outflow of the eruption.
Several days of measurements will be necessary to
confirm that land uplift has resumed. This is because day-to-day changes in
geodetic measurements can occur due to various factors, including variations in
atmospheric humidity or solar storms.
Schematic diagram illustrating conditions wherein there is an equilibrium between the influx of
magma into the magma chamber and the outflow of lava from the eruption.
Ground movement at the GPS station SENG in Svartsengi since the end
of June 2024 in the north, east, and vertical components (top, middle, bottom). The bottom graph shows vertical movement in
millimeters. The red line marks the start of the latest eruption, which began
on August 22.
Two eruptive vents are currently active in the
eruption that began on August 22. The intensity of the eruption has
significantly decreased in recent days. The lava field north of the vents
continues to expand, but its rate growth has considerably slowed. For now, the
lava flow does not threaten infrastructure near the eruption sites. The
accompanying map, based on Iceye satellite data, shows the development of the
lava field from August 26 to September 1.
A map showing
the actively expanding part of
the lava field that formed
during this eruption. The map is based on data from the Iceye satellite.
Seismic activity around the Sundhnúkur crater row has
significantly decreased in recent days. Most of the minor earthquakes that are
being recorded are located on the northern part of the fissure that was active
at the beginning of this eruption.
An updated hazard assessment will be published later
today.
Updated 29 August at 18:00 UTC
In the last few days, the
activity in the eruption has remained fairly stable
Lava flows mostly to the
northwest but also to the east
Greater seismic activity
post-eruption than in previous eruptions. About 20 earthquakes in the last 24
hours
The gas distributionforecast today is northwesterly winds, directing gas pollution to the
southeast
The eruption continues in
the area northeast of Stóra-Skógfell. The activity has remained fairly stable
for the last few days. There are two main lava fountains active which seem
quite vigorous. Lava continues to flow mostly to the northwest at a slow rate
but also to the east.
Here we see the development of the lava flow based on ICEye satellite images during the period from August 26th at 22:17 to August 28th at 23:23.
Greater seismic activity
is being detected since the onset of the eruption on 22 August than in previous
eruptions in the area. That is probably because the eruption is now taking
place further north, where more tension is still within the bedrock, whereas
tension has been released significantly further south in previous events. About
20 earthquakes were detected in the dyke area for the past 24 hours and 110
earthquakes since Monday, 26 August. They are mostly confined to the
volcanically active area.
Land subsidence is still
being detected at Svartsengi, but at a slower rate. This development is similar
to the last eruption. The magma reservoir is believed to be emptying at a
higher rate than filling up.
The graph shows the estimated amount of magma that has accumulated beneath Svartsengi between the volcanic eruptions or magma intrusions that have occured since November 2023.
The gas distributionforecast for today , Thursday 29 August, is northwest 3-8 m/s and gas pollution
will move to the southeast. Changing to westerly and southwesterly winds
tonight, causing gas to be directed eastwards and northeast over the
southwestern part of the country. Tomorrow (Friday), southwesterly winds of
10-15 m/s, causing pollution to be directed north over Vogar on
Vatnsleysuströnd. Air quality can be monitored
on the Environment Agency’s air quality detectors on their website.
Hazard assessment
The hazard assessment has been updated. The main
changes affect Zone 1, which goes from considerable (orange) to moderate (yellow)
hazard level. The change is done considering a lower hazard because of lava
flow invasion, gas pollution and tephra fallout. A reduced level of gas
pollution, originating from the active vent, is assessed also for Zone 4
(Grindavík) and 7 according to gas forecast dispersion in the coming days. The
area within the dashed line in Zone 5 represents a probable outline of the
development of the lava flow front in a few days.
(Click on the map to make it larger)
Updated 26 August at 17:30 UTC
The eruption continues
in the area northeast of Stóra Skógfell. Estimated extrusion rate
at the beginning of the eruption is about 1.500-2.000 m3/s but is
now significantly less, several tens of cubic meters per second. Land subsided about 40
cm when magma propagated from the Svartsengi reservoir into the Sundhnúkur
crater row on the evening of August 22nd. All data indicate that
this eruption is the largest since the autumn of 2023. The area of the lava
field has reached 15.1 km2.According to the gas
distribution forecast, there will be pollution from the eruption and wildfires
in Svartsengi, Reykjanesbær and Vogar, among other places.Updated hazard
assessment.
Time series from the GPS station HS02 at
Svartsengi since the end of June 2024, in north, east and vertical directions
(top, middle, bottom images, respectively). The bottom time series shows land
uplift in millimeters. The red lines are the dates of the beginnings of the
last eruptions, which started on 28 May and 22 August.
Seismic activity has
remained low in the area and has been mainly detected in the northernmost
fissure for the last 24 hours. One earthquake of M3.4 occurred close to
Kleifarvatn just before midnight last night.
(Click on the map to make it larger)
Updated 23 August at 16:00 UTC
The seismic activity and ground deformation rate at
the eruption site has slowed down. Today (23 August) the eruptive activity has
been primarily occurring north of Stóra-Skógafell.
According to information from the Icelandic Coast
Guard’s surveillance flights, that flew at midday today, the main activity is
limited to two areas north of Stóra-Skógafell.
A photo from a
surveillance flight taken by the Icelandic Coast Guard just after noon today,
looking over the northernmost part of the eruption fissure. (Photo:
Almannavarnir/Björn Oddsson)
The fissure that
opened at the beginning of the eruption is now characterized by very low
activity. Only a small fissure appears to be erupting on a small section
directly east of Stóra-Skógafell. Activity seems to be reducing to a few
demarcated areas, as happened in previous eruptions. The lava tongue that
approached the Grindavíkurvegur road at the beginning of the eruption has
therefore almost stopped.
A photograph from the Icelandic Coast Guard’s surveillance flight this
morning. Looking south. Þorbjörn and Svartsengi can be seen in the distance on
the right side of the picture. (Photo: Almannavarnir/Björn Oddsson)
Most of
the flow of lava has been progressing to the northwest, as can be seen in the
above photograph and the map that was published before noon in the previous news.
The propagating lava flow is causing extended
wildfires in the area. The pollution caused by this eruption is transported
fast to the south. Satellite images from today (Sentinel 5p) show the SO2
cloud travelling farer than 1,000 kilometers toward Scotland. See for more
information on gas pollution forecast in the coming days.
Updated hazard assessment
The Icelandic Met Office has updated the hazard
assessment in the light of the latest data and observations. The main changes are
due to the low level of seismicity and deformation in the area detected south
of Stóra-Skógafell. As no lava flows are propagating to the south, the hazard
associated with lava flow invasion has been also reduced in the areas south of
Sunhnúks.
The main change from the last hazard assessment is the
hazard level for area 4 – Grindavík – which has been lowered from red to
orange.
The hazard assessment is valid until 15:00 UTC, Monday
26 August, if the level of activity will be unchanged.
(Click on the map to see it larger)
Updated 23 August at 12:00 UTC
The eruptive fissure is located further
north than in previous eruptions.
Seismic activity and deformation
significantly decreased after 4 AM this morning.
Gas pollution from the eruption will spread
south and southeast today and tomorrow.
The hazard assessment will be updated later
today.
At the onset of the eruption, the fissure opened
between Stóra-Skógfell and Sundhnúkur, similarly to previous eruptions. During
the first few hours, the fissure steadily extended northeast from
Stóra-Skógfell until between 5 and 6 AM this morning. As the eruptive activity migrated
northeast, there was a reduction in activity along the southern end of the
fissure, with the eruption now taking place along a fissure that runs 2-3 km
northeast from Stóra-Skógfell. The currently active fissure is located slightly
farther north than the other eruptions that have occurred in this area since
December 2023.
As the activity on the eruptive fissure shifted
northward, the lava flow advancing towards Grindavíkurvegur, north of
Svartsengi, slowed. The primary lava flow is now moving to the northwest, north
of Stóra-Skógfell.
Map showing the extent of the lava flow
(hatched area) formed during this eruption and the location of the eruptive fissure (red line) as it was
at 03:39 last night. Also shown are the lava fields that have formed in the
area since December 2023 (purple layers). The map is based on data from the
IcEYE satellite.
As the eruptive fissure extended, significant seismic
activity and deformation were recorded around the fissure. After 4 AM, seismic
activity significantly decreased, and the rate of deformation decreased, which
corresponds with the development of the fissure. Despite this deceleration, deformation
is still ongoing in the area.
On the
left is a map showing an overview of the development and location of
earthquakes around the Sundhnúkar Crater Row from 8:00 PM last night to 11:00
AM today. On the right is a bar graph exhibiting
the number of earthquakes
recorded each hour.
There will be northerly and northwesterly winds at the
eruption site until tomorrow evening. Therefore, gas pollution from the
eruption will spread south and southeast. You can monitor the gas dispersion
forecast on our website.
Updated 23. August at 10:00 UTC
The vigor
of the eruption has decreased somewhat since its peak yesterday.
The
activity is now mostly confined to two fissures, the northern end of the
fissure that erupted first and the fissure that opened north of the first one.
Seismicity
decreased rapidly after 4 A.M. However, ground extension continues north of
Stóra-Skógfell, which suggests that the eruption has not reached equilibrium.
Updated 23 August at 01:00 UTC
The length
of the eruptive fissure appears to remain the same for the last hour (approx.
3.9 km).
The seismicity
is fairly stable, and the main activity is at the northern end of the eruptive
fissure. It is therefore unlikely that the fissure will extend to the south. It
cannot be ruled out that the eruptive fissure could extend to the north.
The lava
flow continues both to the east and west towards Grindavíkurvegur. No lava flow
is observed to the south towards Grindavík.
The Coast
Guard will carry out another surveillance flight later tonight.
The next
update will be provided tomorrow morning. IMO maintains a 24-hour monitoring of
all natural hazards and will publish posts on Facebook later in the night with
the latest information about the volcanic activity.
IMO has
updated the hazard assessment which is valid until 3 P.M. today, Friday, August
23rd .
Updated
22 August at 11:25 UTC
IMO
provides a gas distribution forecast. North and northwesterly winds are
forecast tomorrow in the eruption area tomorrow. Gas pollution will spread to
the south and southeast.
Updated
22 August at 10:54 UTC
The
eruptive fissure now extends as far north as the eruptive fissure from the
December 2023 eruption.
Updated 22 August
at 10:45 UTC
Seismic
activity continues at the northern end of the fissure. At 10:37 P.M. an
earthquake of M4 was detected. It originated about 3 km northeast of
Stóra-Skógsfell. Lava flows to the east and west. There is no lava flow towards
Grindavík.
Updated 22 August at 10:30 UTC
The
eruptive fissure has extended to the north. The total length of the fissure is
now about 3.9 km, so it has lengthened by 1.5 km in approximately 40 minutes.
Updated 23 August at 01:10 UTC
The length
of the eruptive fissure appears to remain the same for the last hour (approx.
3.9 km).
The seismicity
is fairly stable and the main activity is at the northern end of the eruptive fissure.
It is therefore unlikely that the fissure will extend to the south. It cannot
be ruled out that the eruptive fissure could extend to the north.
The lava
flow continues both to the east and west towards Grindavíkurvegur. No lava flow
is observed to the south towards Grindavík.
The Coast
Guard will carry out another surveillance flight later tonight.
The next
update will be provided tomorrow morning. IMO maintains a 24-hour monitoring of
all natural hazards and will publish posts on Facebook later in the night with
the latest information about the volcanic activity.
IMO has
updated the hazard assessment which is valid until 3 P.M. today, Friday, August
23rd .
Updated 22 August at 21:50 UTC
The eruptive fissure
initially expanded both to the north and to the south. The length of the
fissure has not been estimated at this point. Currently, no seismic activity is
detected south of the eruptive fissure. The seismic activity is mainly to the
north, which indicates that the magma is breaking its way to the north rather
than to the south.
Updated 22 August at 21:26 UTC
A volcanic eruption has
begun. A fissure has opened east of Sýlingarfell and by 9:30 a gas plume which
reached approximately 1 km height dispersed to the south.
Updated 22 August at 21:25 UTC
At 20:48 UTC an intense
earthquake swarm started in the Sundhnúkur crater row between Stóra-Skógfell
and Sýlingarfell.
Increased pressure has
also been measured in boreholes. These are clear signs that a dyke propagation
has started and it is likely that an eruption is imminent.
Updated 20 August at 15:00 UTC
A trend of
increasing seismic activity has been observed in recent days.
Two earthquakes exceeding
magnitude 2 were recorded last night.
Clear signs of
increasing pressure are observed in the area.
Magma
accumulation and land uplift continue at a steady rate compared to recent days.
The volume of
magma beneath Svartsengi is greater than it was before prior eruptions in the
region.
The hazard assessment
and scenarios remain unchanged.
Seismic activity around the Sundhnúkar Crater Row
continues to exhibit behavior similar to that
observed in the days leading up to the most recent eruption, which began on May
29. Two earthquakes with magnitudes above 2 were recorded last night, bringing
the total to six such earthquakes in the past week.
The seismic activity indicates that pressure continues
to build in the area due to magma accumulation under Svartsengi.
The progression of magma accumulation and land uplift
has remained unchanged in recent days. Model calculations show that the total
volume of magma beneath Svartsengi is now greater than it was before the previous
events.
The likelihood of a new magma intrusion and perhaps an
eruption in the Sundhnúkar Crater Row remains high.
The hazard assessment and potential scenarios remain
unchanged.
Graph showing the development of magma accumulation
and the estimated total amount of magma in the magma chamber beneath Svartsengi
since October 25, 2023.
Updated 16 August at 14:50 UTC
Uplift and magma accumulation at a steady rate for
the last few daysVolume of magma under Svartsengi estimated to be
greater than before the last eruption on May 29Seismicity steady with about 60-90 earthquakes
recorded per day Hazard assessment can be seen here, valid until
August 20 unless conditions change
Seismicity has been fairly steady in recent days, with
about 60 to 90 earthquakes recorded per day. Most of the earthquakes are small,
under a magnitude 1.0, in the area from Mt. Stóra-Skógfell to Grindavík. This
is similar to the activity observed in the past two weeks.
Uplift and magma
accumulation have been occurring at a fairly steady rate in recent days. Model
calculations also show that the volume of magma under Svartsengi is now
estimated to be greater than it was before the last eruption, which began on
May 29. Before the last eruption, magma accumulation continued for two weeks
after reaching previous thresholds before an eruption began.
When comparing the activity before previous eruptions
and magma intrusions, the current seismic activity along with the uplift shows clear
signs that a magma intrusion and even an eruption could begin at any time.
Based on the last eruption, continued magma accumulation could potentially be
required for an additional 2-3 weeks before a new eruption starts.
The Icelandic
Meteorological Office continues to monitor the situation closely around the
clock. The hazard assessment can be seen here and is valid until August 20
unless conditions change.
Updated 13 August at 14:00 UTC
Deformation and seismic activity are
similar as prior to the last eruption on the Sundhnúkur crater row
The volume of magma beneath
Svartsengi is estimated to be just over 20 million cubic metres
Seismic activity in the area has
increased in the last few weeks. About 60-80 earthquakes per day are detected
Hazard assessment is unchanged from
last week and is valid until 20 August, barring any developments
Deformation
signals and seismic activity show similar patterns as prior to the last
eruption on the Sundhnúkur crater row. Model calculations also suggest that the
volume of magma beneath Svartsengi is now estimated to be greater than it was
prior to the last eruption, which started on 29 May. Prior to the onset, land
uplift and magma accumulation continued for two weeks until an eruption
started. It can thus be assumed that
magma propagation and a volcanic eruption can start at any time, but based on
previous occurrences it may be delayed.
Seismic
activity in the area has increased in recent weeks and development is similar
as before the previous magma propagations and volcanic eruptions. The last
seven days have been similar, with about 60-80 earthquakes detected per day in
the area between Stóra-Skógfell to Grindavík. Most of the earthquakes are at
depths between 2-4 km, the shallowest in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and
Sýlingarfell.
Seismic activity on the Sundhnúkur crater row since 1
December 2023 showing the patterns in seismic activity between eruptions and
magma propagations.
Deformation
data suggest that land uplift is ongoing but at slower rate. That indicates
that magma pressure is increasing beneath Svartsengi. Model calculations
estimate that over 20 million cubic metres of magma have been added to the
magma reservoir beneath Svartsengi since the last eruption. This is similar to
the observed trend which lead to the last magma propagations and volcanic
eruptions, as shown in the following graph.
Graph showing the development of magma accumulation and
estimated total volume of magma in the magma reservoir beneath Svartsengi from
25 October. Each magma propagation has not exhausted the magma reservoir, and
therefore the starting status of magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi will
vary in each cycle after November 2023.
Hazard assessment unchanged
The hazard assessment issued
by the Icelandic Meteorological Office remains unchanged and is valid until 20
August, barring any developments. The possible scenarios are also unchanged.
Scenario 1 – Eruption between
Stóra-Skógfell and Sundhnúkur (central part of zone 3 on the hazard assessment map). Similar location to
eruptions that began on 18 December 2023, 8 February, 16 March, and 29 May
2024.
The likely precursor is a localized
earthquake swarm between Stóra-Skógfell and Sýlingarfell, acceleration in
deformation, and pressure changes in boreholes in the area.Very short pre-eruption warning time (less
than 30 minutes).Lava could reach Grindavíkurvegur near
Þorbjörn within 1.5 hours and Grindavíkurvegur near Svartsengi within 3
hours.
Scenario 2 – Eruption south of
Sundhnúkur, near Hagafell, and extending south towards and potentially within
northern Grindavík (southern
part of zone 3 on the hazard assessment map and the northern part of zone 4).
Similar location to the eruption that began on 14 January 2024.
The likely precursor is an earthquake swarm
starting near Stóra-Skógfell or Sýlingarfell and moving south,
acceleration in deformation, and pressure changes in boreholes in the
area.The warning interval for an eruption in this
area would probably be longer than in scenario 1, but it is uncertain by
how much. The length of the warning period depends on how far south the
magma must break a pathway to the surface.Lava could reach Nesvegur and
Suðurstrandarvegur within 1.5 hours. Lava flows could potentially close
escape routes on land within about 6 hours.In this scenario, lava could reach the sea
east of Grindavík within 1.5 to 3 hours. If lava reaches the sea, it could
cause localized hazards due to rapid cooling of the lava. Initially, there
would be a hazard due to ash and gas formation, primarily hydrochloric
acid (HCl). Within a radius of about 500 meters from where the lava enters
the sea, conditions would be life-threatening.A magma intrusion that reaches south of
Hagafell will likely cause significant fault movements in Grindavík.There is a
possibility that lava could erupt within Grindavík. One scenario is that lava
erupting from a vent north of the protective barriers at Grindavík could flow
into existing fissures and then re-emerge again within the town limits. Another
scenario is the possibility of an eruptive fissure opening within Grindavík.
However, in such a situation, it is likely that a fissure would first open
north of the town before opening within the town limits.
Updated 9 August at 12:30 UTC
The number of earthquakes in the Sundhnúkur
crater row continues to increase. Almost 300 earthquakes have been recorded
since Monday, August 5Around 300 earthquakes recorded since August 5. All of them are small earthquakes
Uplift and magma accumulation under
Svartsengi remain like the last few daysHazard
assessment remains unchanged. See here.
The number of recorded earthquakes in the Sundhnúkur
crater row continues to increase. All of these are small earthquakes, with
magnitudes below M2.0, and most of them below M1.0. This week, since Monday,
August 5, nearly 300 earthquakes have been recorded in the area. The number of
earthquakes has been increasing in recent weeks.
Deformation
data and model calculations show that uplift and magma accumulation under
Svartsengi remain similar to the last few days. These data indicate that magma
pressure continues to increase, and this is a similar trend to the weeks
leading up to previous magma intrusions and eruptions.
Overview of earthquake activity around the Sundhnúkur crater row based
on reviewed earthquakes from June 3 to August 9. On the left, the location of
the earthquakes is shown on a map; in the upper right, there is a graph showing
the magnitude of the earthquakes; and in the lower right, there is a bar chart
showing the number of earthquakes per week. The bar chart shows increasing
seismic activity in recent weeks compared to the low activity during the last
eruption from May 29 to June 22.
The IMO’s hazard assessment remains unchanged from
before. The updated hazard assessment is valid until August 13, if no changes
occur. The scenarios presented in the last news update also remain unchanged.
Updated 6 August at 15:30 UTC
The number of
earthquakes per day on the Sundhnúkur crater row is slowly increasing
According to
model calculations, enough pressure has built up in the system to trigger a new
event
Hazard
assessment remains unchanged from last week
The number of earthquakes per day detected on the
Sundhnúkur crater row and the surrounding area continues to increase. About 60
earthquakes were detected in the last 24 hours. In comparison, the number of
earthquakes just over a week ago was about 30 earthquakes on average per day.
The
development of land uplift and magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi has
remained similar for the past few days as the land uplift continues to decrease
at a slow rate. That, together with increased earthquake activity indicates
that pressure in the system is increasing. It remains to be seen how much
pressure the crust can withstand before it brakes, and another magma
propagation occurs.
According
to model calculations, the estimated amount of magma in the magma reservoir
beneath Svartsengi is comparable to what it was prior to the onset of the
eruption that started at the end of May. Initial model calculations suggested
that by the end of this week, the upper limit of amount needed to trigger a new
magma propagation and even a volcanic eruption would be reached. The rate of
uplift has decreased, which can result in a longer time window if a new event
doesn’t start in the next few days.
The updated
hazard assessment issued by the Icelandic Meteorological Office remains
unchanged and is valid until 13 August, barring any developments. The possible
scenarios are also unchanged.
Scenario 1 – Eruption between
Stóra-Skógfell and Sundhnúkur (central part of zone 3 on the hazard assessment map). Similar location to
eruptions that began on 18 December 2023, 8 February, 16 March, and 29 May
2024.
The likely precursor is a localized
earthquake swarm between Stóra-Skógfell and Sýlingarfell, acceleration in
deformation, and pressure changes in boreholes in the area.Very short pre-eruption warning time (less
than 30 minutes).Lava could reach Grindavíkurvegur near
Þorbjörn within 1.5 hours and Grindavíkurvegur near Svartsengi within 3
hours.
Scenario 2 – Eruption south of
Sundhnúkur, near Hagafell, and extending south towards and potentially within
northern Grindavík (southern
part of zone 3 on the hazard assessment map and the northern part of zone 4).
Similar location to the eruption that began on 14 January 2024.
The likely precursor is an earthquake swarm
starting near Stóra-Skógfell or Sýlingarfell and moving south,
acceleration in deformation, and pressure changes in boreholes in the
area.The warning interval for an eruption in this
area would probably be longer than in scenario 1, but it is uncertain by
how much. The length of the warning period depends on how far south the
magma must break a pathway to the surface.Lava could reach Nesvegur and
Suðurstrandarvegur within 1.5 hours. Lava flows could potentially close
escape routes on land within about 6 hours.In this scenario, lava could reach the sea
east of Grindavík within 1.5 to 3 hours. If lava reaches the sea, it could
cause localized hazards due to rapid cooling of the lava. Initially, there
would be a hazard due to ash and gas formation, primarily hydrochloric
acid (HCl). Within a radius of about 500 meters from where the lava enters
the sea, conditions would be life-threatening.A magma intrusion that reaches south of
Hagafell will likely cause significant fault movements in Grindavík.
There is a
possibility that lava could erupt within Grindavík. One scenario is that lava
erupting from a vent north of the protective barriers at Grindavík could flow
into existing fissures and then re-emerge again within the town limits. Another
scenario is the possibility of an eruptive fissure opening within Grindavík.
However, in such a situation, it is likely that a fissure would first open
north of the town before opening within the town limits.