IMF raises growth forecast for Spain to 2.9%, three times more than that of the eurozone

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was one of the last organisations to update its economic growth forecasts for the end of this year and, like all the others, it has revised Spain’s growth upwards. The body headed by Kristalina Georgieva has raised its forecast by half a point to calculate that national GDP (gross domestic product) will advance by 2.9% this year, slightly above the Spanish government’s forecast of 2.7% and slightly below the estimate made on Monday by financial think tank Funcas (3%).

This growth is even higher than that forecast by the IMF for the United States (2.8%) and three times that of the eurozone. By 2025 Spain will continue to grow faster than its partners (2.1% compared with 1.2% in the eurozone), although it will already be somewhat behind the USA and Canada.

As for inflation, after the great crisis over prices (food, energy…) experienced globally in recent years, the IMF calculates that Spain will reduce its rate from the 3.4% with which it closed out 2023 to 2.8% this year, even falling further to 1.9% in 2025. This figure will already be below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recommended target. The eurozone’s inflation rate will also remain at 2% at the end of 2025, according to IMF calculations.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance considers the IMF’s revision to be one of the largest upward revisions among the main developed economies, which makes Spain “the big economy that will grow the most this year.” The same will happen in 2025, when the Spanish economy will continue to lead growth in the eurozone, according to the ministry.

The one area where Spain continues to sit at the bottom, not only in the eurozone but also among developed economies, is the unemployment rate. The IMF calculates that Spain will close the year with an unemployment rate of 11.6%, half a point lower than at the end of 2023. Also that in 2025 unemployment will fall to 11.2%. These forecasts are considerably higher than those of central government, which hopes to reduce the rate to 10% in 2025. This rate is double the average for the eurozone, which will stand at 6% at the end of 2024.