Bulgaria will hold its seventh general election since April 2021 on October 27, with no expectations that the latest vote will lead to a more positive outcome than the previous six, all of which have produced fragmented parliaments and short-lived unstable governments.
A record-low turnout is expected, according to a poll carried out by Alpha Research at the end of September. It indicates turnout will fall to just 30% — below the previous record-low 34% registered in the last general election in June.
“Bulgarian voters enter the campaign tired and demotivated by the fruitlessness of the June elections and the increasing inability of party elites to be responsible and manage complex political situations,” Alpha Research said.
Analysts have repeatedly said that the turnout could rise only if political parties carry out strong election campaigns.
Yet there has been little sign of this. The very public rift within the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) has dominated the headlines. Instead of rousing voters with their campaigns, there is speculation that parties are instead paying voters to turn out.
Far right on the rise
Another key risk for Bulgaria is that the support for far-right, pro-Russian Vazrazhdane and similar political projects is rising amid the deepest political crisis the country has faced in the past 35 years. Polls show that the party could come second after former prime minister Boyko Borissov’s Gerb on October 27, which would put the party in a strong position to form a coalition with Gerb or other parties.
Vazrazhdane is pushing for the implementation of Russian-style laws on foreign agents and laws against equal rights for LGBT people. A law, initiated by the party, was passed by the current parliament with the support of all political parties except reformist Change Continues-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), banning LGBT propaganda in schools – although there are no indications that schools were spreading pro-LGBT propaganda in the first place.
Another formation – populist There Are Such People (ITN) – seems to be playing on the same side as Vazrazhdane and would a join coalition including the far-right party. If Bulgaria’s newest party, Greatness, which is also pro-Russian, makes it to parliament, it is also a natural coalition partner of Vazrazhdane along with the pro-Russian Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP).
Trump or Harris?
Gerb is forecast to win the election with around a quarter of the votes — putting it well short of the number of MPs it needs to put together a majority. It is almost certain to get the first mandate to form a government, but there are indications that Gerb’s leader will be waiting to see the outcome of the US presidential election in early November to decide on the party’s next steps.
During the campaign Borissov has directed most of his attacks at his former partners from CC-DB, giving weight to speculation that he plans — or has already agreed — to form a coalition with DPS – New Beginning, one of the rival factions from DPS, led by Magnitsky-sanctioned Delyan Peevski.
Gerb members have remained silent regarding the party’s position on Peevski. Borissov so far has not commented in any way on the conflict in DPS and whether he would officialise Gerb’s informal cooperation with Peevski in the next parliament.
The only formation he says Gerb will not work with is CC-DB, and he has firmly rejected their idea of a technocratic government without members of political parties as ministers.
A collaboration between Gerb and Peevski’s faction would most likely produce a government in the illiberal style of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz. Vazrazhdane would be a natural partner.
However, if Donald Trump loses the presidential vote in the US everything could change. In the event of a victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, Gerb is more likely to play the play Euro-Atlantic card. That would leave the party isolated, as it has alienated CC-DB. In that case, Borissov may simply refuse to form a regular government at all.
War within the DPS
The rift between the DPS’s chairman of honour Ahmed Dogan and Peevski has affected not only the party but also all political formations running for parliament and their campaigns. Both men are extremely influential behind the political scenes in Bulgaria, with speculation they hold sway over many politicians outside the DPS.
In the upcoming election Peevski’s DPS – New Beginning will face off against Dogan’s Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS), after a controversial court ruling that Peevski’s formation can keep the original name, even though Dogan’s wing submitted its documents earlier.
As the power struggle intensifies, key members of Dogan’s APS have been arrested for alleged corruption and vote buying. APS has accused Peevski of being behind the arrests, saying he controls the police and the prosecution in the country.
The same claim has been repeatedly made by CC-DB. One of the parties in that formation, Yes, Bulgaria!, has provided more than 300 names of brokers buying voters mainly for Peevski but also for Gerb. So far, the prosecution has refused to investigate.
Hope dwindles
Despite recent changes such as the rise of Vazrazdenie and the implosion of the DPS, the situation going into this weekend’s general election is just as hopeless as before any of the previous six general elections in the last three and a half years.
No party is set to gain more than a quarter of the vote, leaving yet another highly fragmented parliament. Previous alliances — such as the banding together of Gerb’s rivals to root out corruption during its past governments, or the temporary Euro-Atlantic alliance between Gerb and CC-DB — have broken down.
The dividing line this time around appears to be politicians’ and parties’ positioning vis-a-vis the controversial but influential figure Peevski.
CC-DB has said it would be ready to form a coalition supporting technocratic government with a non-politician for prime minister but only if Peevski’s influence is completely excluded, and Vazrazhdane is kept out as well.
Other political parties, including Vazrazhdane, the BSP and ITN also claim they would not cooperate with Peevski. However, in the current parliament they have been working in unofficial cooperation with his faction and Gerb.
Neither of the two parties with clear political stances, CC-DB and Vazrazhdane, would be able to gather enough support for a ruling coalition without suffering damage to their images.
Overall, as the next parliament is expected to comprise between six and seven parties, if the turnout remains as low as predicted, Bulgaria might simply be heading towards another snap vote in a few months.