Without urgent and unprecedented cuts to global greenhouse gas emissions, current climate policies will likely lead the world to over 3 degrees Celsius warming during this century, according to the latest annual UN Emissions Gap Report published today.
The report reemphasized last year’s sobering message that without more ambitious action the world could soon wave goodbye to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the point at which the most severe and irreversible impacts of climate change can be staved off.
It stated that even if countries manage to completely fulfill their current climate pledges for cutting emissions by 2030, the world could expect 2.6 degrees Celsius global warming.
Global heating is making extreme weather events like flooding and wildfires more frequent and severe Image: David W Cerny/REUTERS
Emissions at record high
“The sad news is that there actually hasn’t been a lot of progress if we look across the board,” said Anne Olhoff, chief climate advisor at the UN’s environment program and lead author of the report.
“We hear every day about how important this is, how much we need to act,” said Olhoff. “And in reality, we are only seeing baby steps where we should be seeing this quantum leap.”
Since last year Olhoff said global emissions have continued to increase and that Madagascar was the only country to strengthen mitigation targets for 2030.
Global greenhouse gas emissions hit a new record of over 57 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023 and rose across all sectors.
The power sector was the highest source of emissions, followed by transport, agriculture and industry. The G20 members, excluding the African Union, accounted for 77% of emissions in 2023, while the UN’s list of 47 least developed countries accounted for just 3%.
Limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require cutting emissions 42% from 2019 levels by 2030, and 28% for 2C warming.
The report, now in its fifteenth year, stated that even if countries fully meet and implement their climate plans — known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — it would only lead to 10% emission reductions by 2030.
“Clearly the latest emissions gap report is a stark reminder that the time is running out,” said Harjeet Singh, global engagement director at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, a global civil society campaign. He added the report highlights our choice of acting today to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius or facing “the devastating reality of surpassing it.”
“It is indeed extremely frustrating that this is not a warning that we have not heard before,” added Singh. “Every time a scientific report comes out, it puts out a much starker warning than before. But the reality is that it’s falling on deaf ears: our political leaders are not listening to the science.”
The report urges nations heading to Baku, Azerbaijan, next month for the COP29 UN climate summit to massively increase their ambition and commitments ahead of submitting new NDCs early next year.
Expanding solar and wind power could deliver large chunk of needed emissions cutsImage: Terrence Antonio James/Zumapress/picture alliance
Technical solutions provide hope
While the scale of necessary emission cuts is daunting, Olhoff emphasizes there are actions and solutions that are “proven, low cost and even cost competitive in some cases.” The report says it remains “technically possible” to cut emissions in line with the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal of the Paris Agreement.
Increased use of wind and solar energy could achieve 27% of the emissions cuts needed by 2030 and 38% of those needed by 2035, according to the report’s estimates, while low-cost forestry strategies — including reduced deforestation, increased reforestation and better forest management — could help contribute up to 20% of the needed reductions. The rest could be achieved by measures including increasing efficiency, electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors.
“The most positive thing is really that we do have all these options and that there are no good reasons not to deploy them at much larger scale and much faster than we have been doing so far,” said Olhoff.
Reforestation and better forest management is a low cost way to reduce emissions, says report Image: Sascha Quaiser
Increasing climate finance
Achieving necessary emissions cuts would require a six-fold increase in mitigation investment from US$6.7 – 11.7 trillion by 2035, according to the report.
While these seem like large sums, it is only a fraction of the total costs many countries — particularly in emerging markets and developing economies — will already be spending on infrastructure and energy systems in the coming years, said Olhoff.
The incremental yearly costs of redirecting investments from high to low carbon activities would be US$0.9 – 2.1 trillion per year, according to the report. “And that’s not even accounting for all the benefits and all the avoided climate change impacts and damages and other benefits to health, nature and people,” said Olhoff.
The report should help drive more ambitious financial commitments at COP29, particularly from rich countries, said Singh. “Without an ambitious climate finance goal, we will not be able to ratchet up the action that is needed to reduce emissions.”
The UN summit in Baku will for the first time in 15 years task countries with agreeing to a new climate finance goal. It will replace the 2009 target of mobilizing US $100 billion annually from wealthy nations to support developing countries, which was only met for the first time in 2022. The emissions gap report emphasizes the biggest economies and emitters need to show stronger leadership and action.
Every tiny temperature increase matters
Global temperatures are now at almost 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
“We see droughts, fires and floods at a scale that was unimaginable just five to ten years ago…and what we have learned much more about over the past 10 years is that basically every fraction of a degree matters,” said Olhoff.
Olhoff admits it can be frustrating to see so little action when we know what the future potentially holds. “But I also continue to believe that we can make a difference and the report shows that we have so many options and that there are opportunities to avoid the worst case future. We just need to act now. So I will continue to fight for that.”
Edited by: Sarah Steffen
Sources
UN Emissions Gap Report 2024
https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024