When politicians start talking about abortion law, it’s often more about the politics than the law. When this occurs in the heat of an election campaign, the likelihood of that only increases.

Since Robbie Katter ignited the final weeks of the Queensland state election campaign with his talk of winding back abortion law under a possible future Liberal National government, similar talk has crept south and into the federal arena.

A sudden intervention on the subject by the Northern Territory Country Liberal party MP Jacinta Nampijinpa Price sparked questions about a coordinated strategy among conservatives to put the issue back on the agenda nationally.

Abortion, under specified conditions, is legal in all Australian states and territories. On Wednesday, Nine newspapers’ headlines suggested Price was seeking to revisit that, as she was quoted saying she couldn’t support abortion past the first trimester and calling full-term abortion – which statistics show is rare – “infanticide”.

Almost before the breakfast coffee had gone cold, senior federal Coalition members – female – were out heading off any suggestion this was an authorised position. Rather, it was a personal view if unwelcome in its expression.

“Federal Liberals have no intention of changing the settings when it comes to this issue,” deputy opposition leader, Sussan Ley, told Sky News, emphasising that abortion law was a matter for the states and territories.

An hour later, shadow finance minister Jane Hume was reinforcing the message on the same network, declaring that abortion was a personal matter and any talk of change was being peddled by “fringe parties” in the Queensland election context.

“It’s not going to happen,” Hume said.

It had always been an issue of conscience in the Liberal party “and rightly so”.

“There are some deeply held views right around the country and that is fine,” Hume said. “That’s why they call it choice. But what I can assure you and assure your viewers and assure all voters, is that a Dutton-led Coalition government has no plans, no policy and no interest in unwinding women’s reproductive rights.”

Asked for her personal view, she responded: “I don’t see the need to change the laws.”

Nationals Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, backed that in, saying she didn’t think Price’s statements were “helpful”.

‘The LNP has much to lose – or fail to gain’

Perhaps the most telling comments came later and from a bloke, who also happened to be a Queenslander and a normally strongly outspoken opponent of abortion. Senator Matt Canavan told journalists this was a sensitive issue and not an issue best prosecuted “in the heat of an election campaign”.

“I don’t think there’s anything to be gained by playing it out in a tit-for-tat type process,” he said.

In fact, for the LNP in Queensland, there is much to lose – or to fail to gain.

Away from the election context, Canavan has not been shy about expressing his views on the subject. He has sponsored a private senator’s bill in federal parliament, the human rights (child born alive protection bill), to force medical practitioners to save the life of a child born alive following a pregnancy termination. It sits awaiting a government go-ahead which will never come.

The bill was co-sponsored by Victorian United Australia party senator, Ralph Babet, and South Australian Liberal senator, Alex Antic. They seem keen to move things along.

On 20 August, Babet moved a motion in the Senate stating that Australia’s health system was enabling inhumane deaths through abortion and noting that “babies born alive as a result of a failed abortion deserve care”.

The speakers in favour included Canavan and David Fawcett, another South Australian Liberal senator.

A month later, South Australian state Liberal frontbencher Ben Hood introduced a bill into the state parliament aimed at banning abortion after 28 weeks gestation. With a Labor state government, and only a section of the Liberal opposition in support, it was also destined not to become law.

But abortion has been a handy issue for the hard-right in South Australia. When it was decriminalised in 2021, hard-right factional players used the debate to launch a recruiting campaign and succeeded in filling party branches with new members, particularly conservative Christians.

The Senate preselections of earlier this year bore the fruits of their labours, with Antic, a rightwing federal backbencher, wresting the top spot on the Senate ticket from the more moderate and far more senior frontbencher and former minister, Anne Ruston.

The latest efforts to re-elevate abortion as an issue in South Australia are being seen by those not in the hard right as an attempt to repeat that successful factional endeavour.

Federal observers of all these moves say the issue brings together the interests of the honest and the opportunistic – the true-believer anti-abortionists and those who see political benefit in taking a particular public position.

When he introduced the proposed South Australia bill in September, Ben Hood paid tribute to Dr Joanna Howe, an Adelaide University law professor who has been campaigning for “babies born alive” bills across Australia.

‘Katter has set his sights on gaining more seats’

In Queensland on Monday, as the state campaign entered its final week before polling on Saturday, Robbie Katter announced that before seeking to have Queensland’s abortion laws repealed, he wanted them amended – to mandate care for “babies born alive”.

It’s the same language used by like-minded Queenslanders and those further south but there’s suspicion in Coalition ranks about whose interests are being served.

Katter has his sights set on gaining more regional Queensland seats, especially in the north. He isn’t a fan of the LNP. Neither is the Queensland Labor government.

In late March, that government, under the premier, Steven Miles, legislated to allow nurses to administer pregnancy termination medication in Queensland.

The move attracted significant public support and divided the LNP, whose leader David Crisafulli was pressed for his views and ruled out repealing abortion laws if he won the state election.

Three weeks later, when Western Australia’s Labor government passed legislation removing legal barriers to abortion there, Steven Miles posted congratulations on his Instagram account under what looked like an advertising slogan.

“Abortion is now legal in every state and territory,” it said. “Let’s keep it that way.”

Fast forward seven months and Katter’s spontaneous reignition of the abortion debate in Queensland has enabled Miles to reinforce that sentiment. His poll figures have suddenly improved as he’s presented himself as the conviction guy, opposed to unwinding the current law.

Having repeatedly refused to discuss his own personal position on abortion since Katter lobbed his molotov cocktail, Crisafulli was unable to avoid the issue in Tuesday night’s final pre-election debate. Pressed, he declared himself “pro-choice”.

This came after video emerged on Tuesday afternoon of him telling a Griffith University audience last year that he didn’t support re-criminalising abortion but saying, when asked if he was pro-choice, that he didn’t support “late-term abortions”.

The whole issue has sucked oxygen out of the LNP’s campaign in the final pre-election weeks. It may also have helped Labor stem a feared outflow to the Greens, with Miles’ sudden siren song of conviction calling back the deserting disillusioned.

It’s certainly elevated Robbie Katter’s profile enormously.

In politics, there are the true believers and the opportunists, and then those who are a bit of both. Sometimes it can be very hard to tell them all apart.