Michael Schuman: “Donald Trump was right when he warned at the Republican National Convention in July that China is ‘circling Taiwan’ and that a ‘growing specter of conflict’ hangs over the island. But his supposed concern hasn’t stopped him from signaling to Beijing that he might not intervene militarily if China launches an invasion. ‘Taiwan should pay us for defense,’ he said in June, sounding less like the potential leader of the free world than a mafioso running a protection racket.
“Trump’s rhetoric shows how his reelection could undo the central promise sustaining the post–World War II order: that the United States will act as an international cavalry, riding to the rescue of allies, or at least seeking to deter autocratic aggressors. That guarantee, explicit or implicit, has led countries within the American alliance network to stake their national security on U.S. commitments. In Asia, for example, Japan has not developed a nuclear arsenal, even as Chinese leaders expand theirs, because the country is already under the American nuclear umbrella. But if the U.S. loses the will to uphold its promise under a second Trump presidency, or if other governments simply perceive that it has, the entire system of international security could unravel, potentially encouraging regional arms races, nuclear proliferation, and armed conflict—especially over Taiwan.
“‘On national defense, we must rely on ourselves,’ Taiwan’s foreign minister said in response to Trump’s comments this summer, because ‘we have stood alone against China’s threat’—which, he noted, has been true for decades. But Taiwan very likely could not defend itself from a full-scale invasion on its own. The nation, which Beijing still considers to be part of China, isn’t just outnumbered and outgunned. More troubling, its armed forces are plagued by poor planning and training, insufficient stockpiles, a sclerotic command system, and weaponry that may be ill-suited to defend against an invasion …”
“The need for reform is more urgent than ever. China has significantly strengthened its military over the past decade, whereas Taiwan’s defense budget essentially flatlined from 2000 to 2018. Overhauling its forces would, at the very least, help Taiwan survive long enough for the U.S. to mobilize—a process that could take weeks, if not months—and bring international pressure to bear on China. Better still, it might deter Beijing from invading at all.
“Without reform, Taiwan’s military deficiencies would practically compel the U.S. to intervene during a conflict if it wants to preserve American power in Asia, given the vital strategic link that Taiwan provides to the region. That could entail fighting a war on a scale unseen since World War II, at a time when much of the American public no longer supports U.S. engagements overseas, even in much smaller forays.”
The most effective strategy is quiet reliable deterrence. Trump is both disruptive and unreliable.
I don’t know if this is specifically a Trump problem. It all comes down to if the sitting President would come aid Taiwan when China attempts to take the island. The concern there is if a conflict like that would remain conventional, and if the Presidential administration at the time doesn’t believe so, if they’ll still commit.
A more interesting reality exists in the near future, where chip manufacturing in the US has grown to meet it’s needs and reliance on Taiwan is no longer necessary. Where would policy makers stand then?
Nothing wrong with a little irrational leader hypothesis.
And I think we do need to question whether a conflict over Taiwan is more about American global hegemony. And how much the American people are willing to pay, in blood and treasure, for that hegemony.
It isn’t at all clear to me why the US should be willing to go to war with China over Taiwan. The consequences of that would be catastrophic, and literally no major power recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Strategic ambiguity was fine when China was weak, but the situation is getting more and more dangerous and disproportionate to the benefit.
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Not just Taiwan, Trump will cause nuclear proliferation all across Asia (and likely Ukraine). Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all considered protonuclear states under Nuclear Latency, and if the US security guarantees no longer can be relied on, expect to see states creating their own.
If Taiwan were so worried about its own defense maybe it could muster more than 2.5% of its GDP for defense spending.
Whether the next president is Trump or Harris they need to start taking more responsibility for deterring China.
8 comments
Michael Schuman: “Donald Trump was right when he warned at the Republican National Convention in July that China is ‘circling Taiwan’ and that a ‘growing specter of conflict’ hangs over the island. But his supposed concern hasn’t stopped him from signaling to Beijing that he might not intervene militarily if China launches an invasion. ‘Taiwan should pay us for defense,’ he said in June, sounding less like the potential leader of the free world than a mafioso running a protection racket.
“Trump’s rhetoric shows how his reelection could undo the central promise sustaining the post–World War II order: that the United States will act as an international cavalry, riding to the rescue of allies, or at least seeking to deter autocratic aggressors. That guarantee, explicit or implicit, has led countries within the American alliance network to stake their national security on U.S. commitments. In Asia, for example, Japan has not developed a nuclear arsenal, even as Chinese leaders expand theirs, because the country is already under the American nuclear umbrella. But if the U.S. loses the will to uphold its promise under a second Trump presidency, or if other governments simply perceive that it has, the entire system of international security could unravel, potentially encouraging regional arms races, nuclear proliferation, and armed conflict—especially over Taiwan.
“‘On national defense, we must rely on ourselves,’ Taiwan’s foreign minister said in response to Trump’s comments this summer, because ‘we have stood alone against China’s threat’—which, he noted, has been true for decades. But Taiwan very likely could not defend itself from a full-scale invasion on its own. The nation, which Beijing still considers to be part of China, isn’t just outnumbered and outgunned. More troubling, its armed forces are plagued by poor planning and training, insufficient stockpiles, a sclerotic command system, and weaponry that may be ill-suited to defend against an invasion …”
“The need for reform is more urgent than ever. China has significantly strengthened its military over the past decade, whereas Taiwan’s defense budget essentially flatlined from 2000 to 2018. Overhauling its forces would, at the very least, help Taiwan survive long enough for the U.S. to mobilize—a process that could take weeks, if not months—and bring international pressure to bear on China. Better still, it might deter Beijing from invading at all.
“Without reform, Taiwan’s military deficiencies would practically compel the U.S. to intervene during a conflict if it wants to preserve American power in Asia, given the vital strategic link that Taiwan provides to the region. That could entail fighting a war on a scale unseen since World War II, at a time when much of the American public no longer supports U.S. engagements overseas, even in much smaller forays.”
Read more here: [https://theatln.tc/Cd27pmMG](https://theatln.tc/Cd27pmMG)
The most effective strategy is quiet reliable deterrence. Trump is both disruptive and unreliable.
I don’t know if this is specifically a Trump problem. It all comes down to if the sitting President would come aid Taiwan when China attempts to take the island. The concern there is if a conflict like that would remain conventional, and if the Presidential administration at the time doesn’t believe so, if they’ll still commit.
A more interesting reality exists in the near future, where chip manufacturing in the US has grown to meet it’s needs and reliance on Taiwan is no longer necessary. Where would policy makers stand then?
Nothing wrong with a little irrational leader hypothesis.
And I think we do need to question whether a conflict over Taiwan is more about American global hegemony. And how much the American people are willing to pay, in blood and treasure, for that hegemony.
It isn’t at all clear to me why the US should be willing to go to war with China over Taiwan. The consequences of that would be catastrophic, and literally no major power recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Strategic ambiguity was fine when China was weak, but the situation is getting more and more dangerous and disproportionate to the benefit.
[removed]
Not just Taiwan, Trump will cause nuclear proliferation all across Asia (and likely Ukraine). Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are all considered protonuclear states under Nuclear Latency, and if the US security guarantees no longer can be relied on, expect to see states creating their own.
If Taiwan were so worried about its own defense maybe it could muster more than 2.5% of its GDP for defense spending.
Whether the next president is Trump or Harris they need to start taking more responsibility for deterring China.
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