Let’s take a moment before we begin, folks. A quick knee.
Thank you to /uSimonArgead and /u/LaraStardust for their efforts to cover during my extended absence. It wasn’t easy. I’m touched and honored by their efforts. They did a wonderful job.
>Russia’s economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain the war over the long term.
Yeah, that sounds about right. In keeping with where I left them.
By ‘Increasing strain’ they mean manpower deficiencies. I’m certain it’s no surprise to anyone reading this that Russia has been operating at full employment for over a year now.
But what does that actually mean?
If you want a job, you get it. Everywhere has a Help Wanted Sign. And wages are going up all the time. It also means shortages, because labor, not resources or equipment, is the primary bottleneck, so you have the mother of all wage-price inflation spirals. You need a job because everything is growing more expensive all the time. And you leave it for a new one constantly because the wage at which you’re hired does not last.
>The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia’s labor force and production capacity are “almost exhausted.” The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with Russian military salaries and are increasingly having to offer wages several times higher than the typical industry averages.
Last I checked casualties were something like 1,000 / day on the Russian side. That was five months ago and I’m certain the number has only gotten worse. At 30,000 lost a month, the Russian army isn’t growing any stronger despite their crypto mobilization efforts. Recruitment Input = Output and the situation remains stable. The line doesn’t move, but neither does the head count of the men in the trenches.
The problem is that those 30,000 have to come from the Russian work force, a work force already experiencing shortages. Since all potential labor is fully deployed, we should see a constant, slow decline in overall economic output. The Kremlin’s economic figures don’t match that prediction, but let’s just say I have my doubts regarding their veracity.
>Ukraine’s Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yevhenii Romanov stated 60 percent of the 122mm and 152mm artillery ammunition that Russian forces are firing in the Kharkiv direction is from North Korea.[12] Romanov stated that the North Korean shells are poor quality and do not hit their targets or explode at the right time. Romanov also noted that the Russian military may be delivering Iranian-provided ammunition to Russian forces in the area.
If Putin is cozying up to North Korea for faulty artillery shells, and if those shells make up 60% of those fired, then it seems safe to say Russia does not have the productive capacity to keep up with the current war effort. Why? Why hasn’t this problem been solved yet? Why resort to faulty shells from a nation at the logistical ass end of the [Trans-Siberian Railway?](https://cdn.britannica.com/61/50561-050-5B547F8C/Trans-Siberian-Railroad.jpg)
Naturally this is in addition to the reports of North Korean troops operating in Kursk, Russian territory currently controlled by Ukraine. If their presence is to make up for manpower shortages in the Russian army, then we should view them as a dire indicator for the longevity of the Russian Empire.
And on that note…
>Putin very likely assesses that calling another partial mobilization wave, or introducing general mobilization, will be too costly to his regime, and has therefore resorted to crypto-mobilization efforts that appear to be placing greater and greater strains on the Russian wartime economy. The recent appearance of North Korean troops in Russia, and their reported deployment to the combat zone in Kursk Oblast, further suggests that Putin’s entire force-generation system is very tenuous.
Another mobilization wave would be tough for Putin to pull off. Politically I think he could probably do it. Maybe. But economically it would destroy him.
Newly mobilized recruits would need to pull from the labor pool, which we just established is fully deployed. It would mean a devastating drop in productivity across all sectors of the economy and an extreme exacerbation of existing shortages. And this is if the men are still there. Remember, Putin has been conducting crypto mobilization efforts for over a year now, so the easily convinced already went to Ukraine: the greedy, the criminals, and the patriotic. Everyone else proved they require some other form of motivation.
>A Ukrainian brigade operating near Vuhledar posted footage on October 26 of a Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanized assault near Zolota Nyva (west of Vuhledar) and reported that Russian forces used several dozens of pieces of equipment including tanks and armored vehicles, of which Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 20 pieces of equipment.
The attrition of this war is relentless. Ukraine presented Putin with a pair of intractible dilemmas.
1. Material Shortages.
2. Manpower Shortages.
And I am keen to see how he resolves them.
>Preliminary results show that the ruling Georgian Dream party has won the 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections, sparking widespread allegations of voter irregularities and setting the stage for protests, further complications in Georgia-West relations, and enhanced Kremlin influence in Georgia and the South Caucasus. Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party won a simple majority of around 54 percent in the Georgian parliamentary elections held on October 26, 2024, according to preliminary results that the opposition is challenging.
Today’s big, important story is the Georgian (& Moldovan) elections, which appears to have suffered significant Kremlin interference.
>International election observers, Western officials, and the Georgian opposition are contesting the election results alleging systematic violations.
You don’t say.
>International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED), and other international election observing bodies have stated that the Georgian parliamentary elections were marred by violence, voter intimidation, violation of voter secrecy, instances of ballot stuffing, vote buying, violations of “neutrality zones” around polling stations, attacks against opposition members and offices, and double voting, among other irregularities—statements consistent with those of many Georgian civil society organizations and Georgian election observers who have called for the annulment of the results.
Holy crap that list of violations is as long as my arm.
The problem that Georgia is experiencing is that their highest court, the Georgian Constitutional Court, have recently sided with the Dream Party, the group supported by the Kremlin. It’s unlikely the Constitutional Court will intercede on behalf of democracy. Georgia’s only hope now is for mass demonstrations.
I wish the Georgian people luck. May their march bring them liberty.
——————————————————————————————————
>A Ukrainian brigade operating near Vuhledar posted footage on October 26 of a Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanized assault near Zolota Nyva (west of Vuhledar) and reported that Russian forces used several dozens of pieces of equipment including tanks and armored vehicles, of which Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 20 pieces of equipment.
[Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/)
——————————————————————————————————
‘Q’ for the Community:
* What can Putin do to rectify his manpower issue?
1 comment
Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)! Today we return to form.
Please remember that I know nothing.
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**[The Peanut Gallery:](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheNuttySpectacle/)**
Let’s take a moment before we begin, folks. A quick knee.
Thank you to /uSimonArgead and /u/LaraStardust for their efforts to cover during my extended absence. It wasn’t easy. I’m touched and honored by their efforts. They did a wonderful job.
——————————————————————————————————
**[Ukraine:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-27-2024)**
——————————————————————————————————
Alright! What did I miss?
>Russia’s economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain the war over the long term.
Yeah, that sounds about right. In keeping with where I left them.
By ‘Increasing strain’ they mean manpower deficiencies. I’m certain it’s no surprise to anyone reading this that Russia has been operating at full employment for over a year now.
But what does that actually mean?
If you want a job, you get it. Everywhere has a Help Wanted Sign. And wages are going up all the time. It also means shortages, because labor, not resources or equipment, is the primary bottleneck, so you have the mother of all wage-price inflation spirals. You need a job because everything is growing more expensive all the time. And you leave it for a new one constantly because the wage at which you’re hired does not last.
>The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia’s labor force and production capacity are “almost exhausted.” The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with Russian military salaries and are increasingly having to offer wages several times higher than the typical industry averages.
Last I checked casualties were something like 1,000 / day on the Russian side. That was five months ago and I’m certain the number has only gotten worse. At 30,000 lost a month, the Russian army isn’t growing any stronger despite their crypto mobilization efforts. Recruitment Input = Output and the situation remains stable. The line doesn’t move, but neither does the head count of the men in the trenches.
The problem is that those 30,000 have to come from the Russian work force, a work force already experiencing shortages. Since all potential labor is fully deployed, we should see a constant, slow decline in overall economic output. The Kremlin’s economic figures don’t match that prediction, but let’s just say I have my doubts regarding their veracity.
>Ukraine’s Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yevhenii Romanov stated 60 percent of the 122mm and 152mm artillery ammunition that Russian forces are firing in the Kharkiv direction is from North Korea.[12] Romanov stated that the North Korean shells are poor quality and do not hit their targets or explode at the right time. Romanov also noted that the Russian military may be delivering Iranian-provided ammunition to Russian forces in the area.
If Putin is cozying up to North Korea for faulty artillery shells, and if those shells make up 60% of those fired, then it seems safe to say Russia does not have the productive capacity to keep up with the current war effort. Why? Why hasn’t this problem been solved yet? Why resort to faulty shells from a nation at the logistical ass end of the [Trans-Siberian Railway?](https://cdn.britannica.com/61/50561-050-5B547F8C/Trans-Siberian-Railroad.jpg)
Naturally this is in addition to the reports of North Korean troops operating in Kursk, Russian territory currently controlled by Ukraine. If their presence is to make up for manpower shortages in the Russian army, then we should view them as a dire indicator for the longevity of the Russian Empire.
And on that note…
>Putin very likely assesses that calling another partial mobilization wave, or introducing general mobilization, will be too costly to his regime, and has therefore resorted to crypto-mobilization efforts that appear to be placing greater and greater strains on the Russian wartime economy. The recent appearance of North Korean troops in Russia, and their reported deployment to the combat zone in Kursk Oblast, further suggests that Putin’s entire force-generation system is very tenuous.
Another mobilization wave would be tough for Putin to pull off. Politically I think he could probably do it. Maybe. But economically it would destroy him.
Newly mobilized recruits would need to pull from the labor pool, which we just established is fully deployed. It would mean a devastating drop in productivity across all sectors of the economy and an extreme exacerbation of existing shortages. And this is if the men are still there. Remember, Putin has been conducting crypto mobilization efforts for over a year now, so the easily convinced already went to Ukraine: the greedy, the criminals, and the patriotic. Everyone else proved they require some other form of motivation.
>A Ukrainian brigade operating near Vuhledar posted footage on October 26 of a Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanized assault near Zolota Nyva (west of Vuhledar) and reported that Russian forces used several dozens of pieces of equipment including tanks and armored vehicles, of which Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 20 pieces of equipment.
The attrition of this war is relentless. Ukraine presented Putin with a pair of intractible dilemmas.
1. Material Shortages.
2. Manpower Shortages.
And I am keen to see how he resolves them.
>Preliminary results show that the ruling Georgian Dream party has won the 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections, sparking widespread allegations of voter irregularities and setting the stage for protests, further complications in Georgia-West relations, and enhanced Kremlin influence in Georgia and the South Caucasus. Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party won a simple majority of around 54 percent in the Georgian parliamentary elections held on October 26, 2024, according to preliminary results that the opposition is challenging.
Today’s big, important story is the Georgian (& Moldovan) elections, which appears to have suffered significant Kremlin interference.
>International election observers, Western officials, and the Georgian opposition are contesting the election results alleging systematic violations.
You don’t say.
>International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED), and other international election observing bodies have stated that the Georgian parliamentary elections were marred by violence, voter intimidation, violation of voter secrecy, instances of ballot stuffing, vote buying, violations of “neutrality zones” around polling stations, attacks against opposition members and offices, and double voting, among other irregularities—statements consistent with those of many Georgian civil society organizations and Georgian election observers who have called for the annulment of the results.
Holy crap that list of violations is as long as my arm.
The problem that Georgia is experiencing is that their highest court, the Georgian Constitutional Court, have recently sided with the Dream Party, the group supported by the Kremlin. It’s unlikely the Constitutional Court will intercede on behalf of democracy. Georgia’s only hope now is for mass demonstrations.
I wish the Georgian people luck. May their march bring them liberty.
——————————————————————————————————
>A Ukrainian brigade operating near Vuhledar posted footage on October 26 of a Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanized assault near Zolota Nyva (west of Vuhledar) and reported that Russian forces used several dozens of pieces of equipment including tanks and armored vehicles, of which Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 20 pieces of equipment.
[Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/)
——————————————————————————————————
‘Q’ for the Community:
* What can Putin do to rectify his manpower issue?
Comments are closed.