Unsurprisingly, Georgia’s ruling party of 12 years, Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, claimed victory in the October 26 parliamentary elections with 54% of the vote. Unsurprisingly, the Electoral Commission confirmed this victory. Unsurprisingly, the opposition is contesting the results. Georgia’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, denounced a “total falsification,” blamed Russia and called on her fellow citizens to demonstrate on Monday evening.
This situation had unfortunately been foreseeable for several weeks in a country where democracy is declining, the ruling party has gradually taken control of key institutions and the overwhelming preponderance of its election posters illustrated the unequal resources and the growing imbalance in political power.
What is more surprising is that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU) until January 1, not only publicly congratulated the Georgian government on its victory even before the vote was counted, but also decided to pay an official visit to Tbilisi on Monday, two days after the disputed vote, alongside some of his ministers.
Orban’s actions pose a serious problem for Brussels and other EU member states. The Georgian elections were widely criticized as being neither free nor fair. On Sunday, observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, NATO and the EU said that the election was “marred by uneven playing field [between candidates], pressure and tension.”
‘Symbolic measures’
No other European leader congratulated the Georgian government on Sunday or even recognized the election result. The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, called on the Tbilisi electoral commission to respond “swiftly, transparently and independently” to accusations of irregularities. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot expressed his concern at recent developments in Georgia.
Orban has challenged his counterparts even as he prepares to host them for the European Political Community summit in Budapest on November 7 – to which the Georgian prime minister is invited – and a European Council meeting the next day. Michel has put the Georgian question on the agenda.
A week after uncertain elections for Moldova’s pro-EU leaders, the EU must not let the Georgian trap close in on them. In a revealing commentary posted on the Telegram application on the evening of the Georgian elections, the Kremlin-friendly magazine Russia in Global Affairs said that Westerners will “express their disappointment and take symbolic measures” but are too busy elsewhere to effectively support opposition dissent, as they did during the “color revolutions” in Georgia (2003) and Ukraine (2004).
During its expansion phase, Europe supported democratic movements in former communist countries. Today, however, Russia is on the offensive, waging a murderous war in Ukraine and fuelling disinformation and corruption in Moldova and Georgia to prevent them from joining the EU. The ruling Georgian Dream party has successfully played on fears of conflict with Moscow should the pro-EU opposition win. If Europe loses Georgia, it will be with Orban’s blessing.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.