Correlation is not causation. The polls cant react quickly enough to single events, and the polling error nullifies any marked changes. This has been true the entire cycle.
I’m also looking for any good news, but even the presidential debate’s effect took a couple days to come into full effect
Going literally full mask off with blatant racism for a bunch of the electorate.
Yep, thats gonna end well for the trump camp.
Still fucking scary how close we are to a Fascist overthrow of the government…1/2 of the population is STILL going to vote for a convicted felon and rapist? Remember when riding in a tank or a boisterous scream would be disqualifying? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
One must be born yesterday to change her/his presidential vote in either directions over some jokes.
those polls are terrible nowadays. There are so many right leaning groups just flinging shit to distort things. Past month numbers are unreliable AF, early voting is great for Kamala as many GOP early voters had voted day of last time so Democrats can either maintain the lead more easily in PA or make up potential losses in Nevada because young voters will still be turning out while the older voters are done for the most part.
Everyone has forgotten about Access Hollywood already.
As much as I would love for this to be true, it’s impossible for that to be determined from the differences in forecast. You might as well say it’s because we’re in scorpio season now
And Biden footgunned immediately.
I think the term comedian is being used incorrectly here. You were looking for racist.
Why do people follow elections so closely? This is obsessive.
I really hope Biden didn’t F it up for Kamala…
I understand this forum is for the data, and I’m all for that usually, but as a Brit, I cannot fathom how any election versus trump could ever possibly be this close. It’s completely inconceivable to me.
That would be incredibly sad if true but I think you’re making a stretch. There are dozens+ of variables that go into it – especially towards the finish line
With all the garbage they spew it seems as if they are trying to lose but the MAGATs keep sucking it up. Bad is good and wrong is right.
I still don’t understand the data surrounding this election. I genuinely do not understand how Trump has gained voters compared to 2020. Someone make it make sense to me.
If you actually believe a poor joke at a rally would turn the tide of the election, you might be a teenager or have a room temp IQ.
1. You are looking at the electoral college forecast and it changed by 8. There are no swing states with 8 electoral votes. So this would be predicting that some weird combinations of states flipped from R->D and others that flipped from D->R over one joke.
2. If you look at the national general election % chart, you will see that just a week ago (Oct 23) Harris had a 1.8% lead, but now (Oct 30) she only has a 1.4% lead. So I could view that has his joke on Oct 27 actually helped Trump. See how silly of an assumption that would be?
Let’s hope he’s the James Comey for 2024.
His roasts tend to be awesome. His msg showing was lame. The content of the jokes weren’t offensive as much as how weak the jokes were. Watching him in interviews though gives me the sense that he is an insufferable shit who loves the smell of his own farts.
As yes, Trump’s own rally was the real October surprise.
Except Biden just one-upped this unprolific (air quotes) “comedian” by calling Trump supporters “garbage”, to which the government oversight committee surfaced that Presidential documents remove this statement as if he never said it… it’s feeling more like Hilary’s “basket of deplorables” again and not good for Kam/Tim ticket…
22 comments
**Data Source:** Five Thirty Eight.
Correlation is not causation. The polls cant react quickly enough to single events, and the polling error nullifies any marked changes. This has been true the entire cycle.
I’m also looking for any good news, but even the presidential debate’s effect took a couple days to come into full effect
Going literally full mask off with blatant racism for a bunch of the electorate.
Yep, thats gonna end well for the trump camp.
Still fucking scary how close we are to a Fascist overthrow of the government…1/2 of the population is STILL going to vote for a convicted felon and rapist? Remember when riding in a tank or a boisterous scream would be disqualifying? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
One must be born yesterday to change her/his presidential vote in either directions over some jokes.
those polls are terrible nowadays. There are so many right leaning groups just flinging shit to distort things. Past month numbers are unreliable AF, early voting is great for Kamala as many GOP early voters had voted day of last time so Democrats can either maintain the lead more easily in PA or make up potential losses in Nevada because young voters will still be turning out while the older voters are done for the most part.
Everyone has forgotten about Access Hollywood already.
As much as I would love for this to be true, it’s impossible for that to be determined from the differences in forecast. You might as well say it’s because we’re in scorpio season now
And Biden footgunned immediately.
I think the term comedian is being used incorrectly here. You were looking for racist.
Why do people follow elections so closely? This is obsessive.
I really hope Biden didn’t F it up for Kamala…
I understand this forum is for the data, and I’m all for that usually, but as a Brit, I cannot fathom how any election versus trump could ever possibly be this close. It’s completely inconceivable to me.
That would be incredibly sad if true but I think you’re making a stretch. There are dozens+ of variables that go into it – especially towards the finish line
With all the garbage they spew it seems as if they are trying to lose but the MAGATs keep sucking it up. Bad is good and wrong is right.
I still don’t understand the data surrounding this election. I genuinely do not understand how Trump has gained voters compared to 2020. Someone make it make sense to me.
If you actually believe a poor joke at a rally would turn the tide of the election, you might be a teenager or have a room temp IQ.
1. You are looking at the electoral college forecast and it changed by 8. There are no swing states with 8 electoral votes. So this would be predicting that some weird combinations of states flipped from R->D and others that flipped from D->R over one joke.
2. If you look at the national general election % chart, you will see that just a week ago (Oct 23) Harris had a 1.8% lead, but now (Oct 30) she only has a 1.4% lead. So I could view that has his joke on Oct 27 actually helped Trump. See how silly of an assumption that would be?
Let’s hope he’s the James Comey for 2024.
His roasts tend to be awesome. His msg showing was lame. The content of the jokes weren’t offensive as much as how weak the jokes were. Watching him in interviews though gives me the sense that he is an insufferable shit who loves the smell of his own farts.
As yes, Trump’s own rally was the real October surprise.
Except Biden just one-upped this unprolific (air quotes) “comedian” by calling Trump supporters “garbage”, to which the government oversight committee surfaced that Presidential documents remove this statement as if he never said it… it’s feeling more like Hilary’s “basket of deplorables” again and not good for Kam/Tim ticket…
Comments are closed.