Newly published documents from invasion’s first weeks reveal Putin’s plans to render post-war Ukraine powerless

6 comments

1. Interesting way of phrasing ‘non-existent’.

2. The article shows in stark terms the way in which early Ukrainian successes led to rapid retreat by Russia at the negotiating table. In the course of only a few weeks, Ukraine was able to demand more and more based on how the battle was going on the ground.

   This clearly demonstrates the extent to which Russia’s leadership, and very much Putin personally, were massively confident of a non-existent defense by a non-existent people, of a non-existent country they didn’t believe in. They really expected that to be the quick outcome. Even as the 3 day Special Military Operation extended into its second week, they were still certain that Ukrainian patriotism was a sham, that Ukrainian identity was a sham, that allied aid was imaginary, and that even if it existed that NATO weapons were ineffective.

   By April Russia’s tune had completely changed. But even as they made massive concessions to Ukraine in negotiations, they still couldn’t comprehend Ukraine’s continued resolve. It baffled them.

   It may baffle them still to this day.

   Anyway this part of the article particularly struck me:

   >There’s no such thing as the “goals of the special military operation,” according to a source familiar with Putin’s position on the negotiations process: these “goals” will be whatever Putin decides is necessary for him to declare victory at the moment he decides to end the war.

   This can’t be emphasized enough. It is the essence of totalitarianism and fascism. The current goals are whatever the whims and convenience of the leadership might be. If those whims change, then the goals change, and they have always been the goals.

   Because the real goal is to simply exert power and with that power take everything possible, crushing everything in the way.

   Fortunately it seems that this reality about Russia has by now dawned on a lot of outside observers. I imagine it is not news to Ukrainians.

3. For later versions of a potential treaty as amended during negotiation, see…

   [A draft as of 17/03/2022](https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/e548b273c4d42a3a/5e73b566-full.pdf)
   [A draft as of 15/04/2022](https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/a456d6dd8e27e830/e279a252-full.pdf)

   Though note that nothing in these later drafts makes the treaty any more acceptable to Ukraine. The limits on its armed forces are increased moderately, up to 85,000 troops with unacceptably small limits on the amount of equipment and its capabilities. The later drafts added a mechanism through which guarantor states would safeguard Ukraine’s security in the event of a later invasion, but required any action to be taken through the unanimous agreement of the guarantor states and mandated Russia as one of the states.

4. I remember how they already picked targets for next special operations 🤣

5. Wow, no one could see that one coming. Truly, a mindboggling revelation!

6. Great reporting and shout out to Mearshiemer, RFK Jr, and all the other hacks claiming there was a viable “peace deal” on the table from which the West told Ukraine to walk away. There was never a peace deal, only an implement of surrender, and those asserting otherwise aren’t advocating for diplomacy, they’re apologists for fascist conquest.

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